Heh…can we say “LDS persecution complex?” ;-)

1. McCain, Guiliani, Romney – Worst case for Romney. This would make 2/5 more of a 2-person race between Mac and Rudy.
2. Guiliani, McCain, Romney – Slightly better for Romney, but not great. Guiliani’s strategy would be seen as possibly working, but untested until 2/5. McCain & Romney still in the running until 2/5.
3. McCain, Romney, Guiliani – This would make 2/5 a 2-person race between Mac and Mitt, totally marginalizing Rudy. Still, McCain would clearly be the front-runner in the minds of voters at this point.
4. Guiliani, Romney, McCain – This would keep all 3 in play for 2/5, somewhat equally.
5. Romney, Guiliani, McCain – Extremely unlikely, but this would cause the media’s heads to explode which might be fun to watch.
6. Romney, McCain, Guiliani – Again, this would make it a 2-person race on 2/5 between Romney & McCain. The media would spin this to indicate that FL voters were duped again by the flashy Romney, but regardless of the distance between Romney & McCain, they would back McCain.

Obviously, if someone else unexplicably broke the “Top 3″ barrier in FL that would change everything (Huck could, rendering those “throwaway votes” since he can’t possibly show on 2/5; Thompson hasn’t officially backed out yet; I don’t see Paul being big in FL). For any GOP to be electable will depend totally on veep choice and relevance over time (as national and world events unfold between now and election day) since this whole thing is taking place so early.

McCain’s problem has been, and continues to be moving beyond independents. South Carolina demonstrates that it’s possible for him to overcome this, because McCain actually moved into conservative circles on a limited scale in South Carolina — McCain still got smeared among people identifying themselves as “very conservative”, though he finally did well among folks identifying themselves as “somewhat conservative.”

McCain’s win among South Carolina Republicans is an important milestone for McCain. But what’s wishful thinking is supposing that a single primary in South Carolina can solve, in one fell swoop, the political problem that has dogged McCain his entire national political career. At best, the jury is still out. George Will came out tonight against McCain in no uncertain terms. Is this a backlash? It’s just too early to say that Republicans are willing to accept McCain.

I just re-read my earlier comment, and I wasn’t clear enough: The Everybody vs. McCain dynamic holds for Florida. It’s not a function of him being a frontrunner. It’s a function of the fact that Giuliani won’t convert many Romney voters due to his perceived liberalism, and Romney won’t convert many Giuliani voters because of his perceived conservativism. From the point of view of both Romney and Giuliani, the McCain voters are the largest swing block. If McCain holds Florida, then he’ll be a front-runner. Otherwise, we end up with more candidate-soup until Super Tuesday.

The rank-and-file will fall behind Romney or McCain. Huckabee is done.

Re: #79. I hope you’re right and I think you’re right, but that still makes him your strongest potential candidate.

While McCain’s victory has toppled Romney’s delicate frontrunner position, Romney still has the most delegates, by a factor of 2: 72 for Romney and 38 for McCain. We’re back to a race without a frontrunner.

McCain is Bob Dole 2.0 — boring, not compelling, snide, and intemperate; i.e., a Senator’s Senator. If he wins the nomination, look for a reply of 1996. Hillary will eat him for lunch while he drones on and on about his latest hobby-horse and his much vaunted support among independents evaporates when even his “base” lacks the stomach to support him whole-heartedly.

However, I think your prophecy about Huckabee being “gone” is more wishful thinking. The guy has already proven he can win a race besides Arkansas: Iowa. Huckabee was only narrowly edged out by McCain in SC because he had to split the social conservative vote with “bronze medal” winning Thompson. If Thompson drops out, the entire social conservative core of the party goes to Huckabee.

The McCain win definitely hurts Romney. The two are slugging it out for the party’s non-Evangelical, non-Southern minority. To the extent that Guiliani is even in this race anymore, he pulls from the same beleaguered group of dead-enders.

Unless we’re going all the way to the convention, I’m predicting this ultimately will end up as a 2 person race between the GOP elite (represented by either Romney or McCain) and the rank-and-file (represented by Huckabee, given Thompson’s demise). I’d prefer it to be Romney vs. Huckabee, because I think McCain is the strongest GOP candidate. I very much doubt it will end up a two person race Romney vs. McCain. To my thinking, it’s most likely to be McCain vs. Huckabee.