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I don’t think most people bring that much context into an endorsement. Kennedy is a powerful Senator with a large following (at least, allegedly) and tons of name-recognition. If you are inclined to listen to Kennedy at all, you would be influenced to vote for Obama as a result of this endorsement. I doubt that the endorsement alone will be the deciding factor in many votes, but it will swing more cash toward Obama for certain, which will result in many more votes. I don’t think anyone in the republican ranks would turn down an endorsement from Bush. As a practical matter though, it won’t happen. Not because no one wants it, but because sitting presidents simply do not endorse candidates before the primary. |
The Kennedy endorsement is about wresting power in the Democratic party away from the Clintons. It’s partly bandwagon-jumping, partly a calculated judgment that an Obama candidacy has a better chance to contribute to the overall longterm health of the Democratic party. Despite the caricature that right-wingers have promoted of Kennedy for decades, he is willing to compromise in order to get things done, as his work with Bush, Romney and Hatch on Education and Health shows. Kennedy has come to the conclusion that Obama will be best positioned to make concrete achievements on issues that are priorities for him. |
As an Obama supporter, I am happy about the endorsement. One of the elements of “change” I hope for is the election of a president who is willing to reach across the aisle, and not demonize the opposition. Perhaps it cannot be done. I voted for Bush in 2000 because I though he would be more of a “uniter” than Gore, but regretably this did not come to pass. |
Obama already has the young voters and the voters primarily motivated by change. But to win the primary, he needs to win more older voters, more establishment Democrats, and more of the people who are concerned about his lack of experience. Getting an endorsement from the Kennedys (the ultimate establishment Democrats) and from Ted Kennedy himself (who is an incredibly experienced legislator) helps him among those voters. Also, of course, the Kennedys remind many people (particularly older Democrats) of a golden age of optimism and a president who could actually inspire and lead the country. |
I see the Kennedy endorsement as potentially helping Obama win the support of the Latino/a vote. |
I’m with MCQ, I don’t think anyone cares what he brings to the Obama message, they care about his clout. Traditionally he has heavily campaigned for his choice of Presidential candidate, running around the Eastern states asking for votes. He will also help influence Democratic Superdelegates. There is more than one pundit that believes Kennedy is one of the main reasons Kerry ended up getting the nomination four years ago. He doesn’t carry any weight with me, but he seems to carry a ton with old-school Democrats in the East. |
Forgive me for being so dense, but can someone explain why Kennedy helps with the Latino vote? |
Kennedy’s endorsement (both the Senator and Caroline Kennedy’s) show that the “experience” issue that many fight him about doesn’t matter as much. If the very experienced Ted Kennedy is okay with the not nearly as experienced Sen. Obama, than we should be to. At least, that’s my thinking behind this. |
The big thing about it was that he had a long history with the Clintons and left them for Obama. That is a massive sub-text. |
Bill – good point – Kennedy and Hatch seem to be good buddies. anna – that makes a lot of sense, it will be interesting to see if that shifts the dynamic in Massachusetts from Hilary to Obama jjohnsen/McQ – interesting thoughts. I guess I really don’t care who endorses who, except when I view it as a negative (as in this case). anon/Stephen M – that is a fair argument. Hilary left at the alter. I think the underlying anger in this race is a little disappointing. Last night you saw Hilary and Obama essentially pretend the other did not exist although they were two feet from one another. Not the kind of thing you want to see between two Dems – of course, I am happy to let the Repubs kill each other |
Devyn– I agree that no one wants to see that between colleagues, but seriously, the Clintons have played so dirty–wouldn’t it be hard to be social? I agree with others that the importance of this endorsement is for those within the party, particularly Superdelegates–it signals to them that it is OK to step away from the Clintons. I believe that the Obama campaign must be working pretty hard on Bill Richardson and Al Gore for endoresements as we speak. I would LOVE to see those endoresements! For some reason, that I am not knowledgeable enough to understand, the Obama people believe that Ted Kennedy can help influence Hispanic and Labor votes. I see the connection on Labor, not so much on Hispanic, but I am a newbie. |
I don’t see the logic behind Kennedy’s vaunted Hispanic draw. Kennedy has no significant hispanic contingent in his constituency, so any support that he has is going to be very soft. Insofar as Kennedy is a national figure, he’s as divisive as the Clintons. The only thing that Kennedy gives Obama is someone to do the dirty work of negative campaigning against the Clintons, so that Obama himself can keep his hands clean. Great post, Devyn. |
Kennedy is letting union members and other traditional white male Democrats, like the ones who gave Edwards 44% of their vote in South Carolina, know that it’s OK to vote for Obama. Among those voters maybe his endorsement means something. Really, though, I’d like to give every candidate a job behind a cash register for a week so they can get past those dreams of making change. |
Speaking of white male Democrats, I thought Bill Clinton’s anti-Reagan campaigning was pretty stupid. A lot of people love Reagan, probably three times as many as love Bill Clinton. Who’s he going to take on next? “Me and Hillary are bigger than Jesus.” |
John–very funny! |
Forgive me for being so dense, but can someone explain why Kennedy helps with the Latino vote? The Kennedy family, perhaps especially Ted, has long been known for their support of Latino labor unions and years ago, Ted’s brother Robert marched with Cesar Chavez. Even more relevant, though, is Kennedy’s advocacy of immigration reform, an area Obama is specifically singling out as one of the key differences between he and Clinton. |
I think Bill and Hillary have become caricatures of their former selves, and more people are seeing that “The emporer(s) has(have) no clothes.” There are two things that are kind of laughable: Hillary has little to no stage presence, and Bill is acting like he has some moral authority left. They are almost pathetic at this point. I’m starting to think Obama will get the Democratic nomination. The only hope for the Republicans to win the White House is Romney or Giuliani. McCain is still “old guard”, being in the Senate and on the national scene too long. And too much negative material and dirt is out there that can be used against him. I’m telling ya, the reason some Dems and the liberal press are endorsing McCain as the best of the Republican contenders, is because they strongly believe he’s beatable. I loved DKL’s line about “if you run a real democrat (either Hillary or Obama) against a wanna-be democrat (McCain), the real democrat will win.” |
If Ted Kennedy has so much clout, how come he couldn’t beat Jimmy Carter when inflation was in double digits and Americans were being held hostage in Tehran? |
Kennedy’s way of politicking meshes with the Latino patrons. Here’s an item from the Santa Fe New Mexican, about Emilio Naranjo endorsing Senator Clinton in December. Naranjo, a 91-year-old patriarch, was a big wheel in local and state politics for a long time. He was chairman of his county’s Democrats from 1952 to 1994. Around 1992, Ted Kennedy came to Rio Arriba county to campaign for Naranjo. He spoke admiringly of Naranjo’s hold on power. Paraphrasing from memory, “We think we know how to do politics where I come from, but Emilio’s been in control here over forty years.” |
Here’s something from the last presidential race: And on Friday, Ted Kennedy will be in town to campaign for his fellow Massachusetts senator. I suspect the Kennedy name still has some magic here for longtime Democrats. Retired Judge Art Encinias used to tell stories about going into homes in Rio Arriba County with pictures of three people on their walls — Jesus Christ, John F. Kennedy and former state Sen. Emilio Naranjo. |
Kennedy’s endorsement might help a bit with the Latino vote, but it won’t be enough to overcome the social & political hostility between blacks and Latinos. Off topic, but I couldn’t help but admire the ferocity with which Kennedy endorsed Obama. I think that was the most lucid I’ve seen him in a long time. ;-) |
I think a Kennedy endorsement for Obama is surprising. It raises eyebrows and gets Kennedy (positive) attention. This is good for Kennedy – or good for his ego. It makes him momentarily ‘relevant’ … I think if he gave his support to the Clintons that it would get a very ho-hum not-so-big-a-deal reaction. It is what people would have expected. It’s probably the difference between being on the front page of the newspaper for one instead of two days. I kind of got a kick out of the newspapers and news outlets saying that Kennedy was going to give his endorsement to Obama, before it happened. Why the pre-endorsmenet anouncement before the endorsement announcement? It was really silly – but maybe from a politican’s standpoint it’s two-and-a-half days of his name in the news instead of just two days. |
Responding to the original post… Apparently you haven’t been following the Democratic primaries that closely. Hillary has been accusing Obama of being a closet conservative. A Ronald Reagan in sheep’s clothing I guess. Kennedy’s endorsement really makes that claim an awkward one for the Clintons to make. |
We are heavily Republican on this blog? |
danithew – I like your analysis – cynical like mine… Seth – interesting perspective. These two have been saying a lot of negative, stupid things about each other. Anyonne who believes the Ronald Reagan piece is a fool. Jeans – check out the permablogger posts – dyed in the wool Republicans led by DKL |
Kennedy’s clout with the hispanic voters will be especially critical in getting those key delegates from California. Perhaps one of the most important things in getting the nomination, and Kennedy’s political network and active campaigning for Obama could potentially be huge in that regard. Of course, he may just leave it at the speech and don’t be terribly active in campaiging – that remains to be seen. |
David Brooks in the NYT wrote a great column discussing the significance of Kennedy’s endorsement: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/29/opinion/29brooks.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin Anyone who thinks Brooks is a partisan hack should especially take note. (Yes, I’m referring to you, Dan.) |
I’ve always been quite dubious of the Kennedy mythos and of the baby-boomers who worship their memory… However, the one thing you can say about this particular chess move is that the dynasty has succeeded created a media meme. Their weight at this moment — right after Bill Clinton made his very unfortunate Jesse Jackson remark — created the media narrative that the Democratic establishment is turning on the Clintons. Potentially this could affect the national numbers for Obama going into Tsunami Tuesday. If so, that’s among the more impressive political manuevers that old man Kennedy has been able to accomplish. Either way, we haven’t totally resolved this campaign yet. |
Tagore, Hey, if Brooks writes a good piece, he writes a good piece. That doesn’t mean he has not written partisan hack pieces before. Obviously he’s no Bill Kristol. |
Dan, A partisan hack is someone who consistently and dogmatically advocates one particular view or position, regardless of the facts (e.g., Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh). Brooks is not in that camp. Anyway, I’m glad you liked it. |
“Potentially this could affect the national numbers for Obama going into Tsunami Tuesday. If so, that’s among the more impressive political manuevers that old man Kennedy has been able to accomplish.” Kennedy will help, but the national numbers were already moving toward Obama. The news that John Edwards is dropping out is not good, however. He helped Obama more by being in the race. |
Bill why do you think Edwards helps Obama? It seems to me the opposite. Edwards was splitting the Obama vote. I think more Edwards supporters will break for Obama than Clinton. |
I hope this is true but I am somewhat doubtful. Edwards appealed to parts of the constituencies of both of the others. There is also the consideration that in odd-numbered delegate districts where Clinton ends up slightly ahead she will now have an advantage, whereas with Edwards in, there might be a tie between Clinton and Obama delegate-wise, with Edwards picking up the odd delegate. I would have preferred Edwards to have postponed the inevitable a little longer, giving the Obama momentum more chance to grow. |
Key question about Edwards – is he going to do a deal with Hilary or Obama? I think his support could make the difference and he could be the “kingmaker” |
I think Edwards already burned away bridges with Clinton. I also think there is an interesting coordination between the Kennedy endorsement and Edwards pulling out. Kennedy told the old timey Democrats it’s OK to vote for Obama, and then the candidate who pulled in 44% of the white male vote in South Carolina leaves the race. Very good for Obama to have the two events in that order and not the other way around. |
There were rumors that in return for his support, Edwards would be offered Attorny General in an Obama cabinet, but those were never confirmed. |
Good point John – should open up the South a bit more for Obama. Bill – that would be a likely spot for him or else as secretary of HHS where he could spread his anti poverty ideas around |
Last week reminded me of an old anti-Clinton bumper sticker: “I didn’t vote for him … or her either.” The Democrats were reminded that if you take one of the Clintons, you get the other one whether you want him or not. |