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DKL, |
(I should say, nothing against boring old white guys. I hope to become one some day. But if New York dining reflected the tastes of the older partners in law firms and I-banks, ours too would be a culinary wasteland. I know because largely the restaurants near where I work reflect their taste or the taste of tourists. Fortunately, there are younger, hipper areas in this city with younger, hipper restaurants.) |
She authored the historic Help For Homeowners bill so that is a pretty important accomplishment. Still, I am bitterly disappointed that she and the other leaders in the House and Senate (plus the President) couldn’t convince the knuckleheads in congress to pass this bill. Main street loses if lending screeches to a halt. What becomes of all that retirement savings of all those Americans is the stock market basically crashes? Yes the bill is unpopular but congress should do what’s right for their people even when people don’t yet understand it. I think that the biggest problem here is that the elections are so close that many in congress are too cowardly to do do the right thing for the long run because doing the right thing might jeopardize their jobs in the short run. I hear that Pelosi gave a scathing partisan speech before the vote and that might have hurt this bill’s chances. If that is true I find her leadership and judgment lacking. |
Geoff J., Here is the speech she gave: Not a smart move. |
Pelosi has been a mess. Most of the things she promised back in 2006 haven’t been done including ethics reforms. The Democrats have had the leadership and have accomplished nothing but blaming all problems on Bush. She mishandled this horrible. (There’s a great analysis at the WaPo of it all) That said if any Republican voted against it because Pelosi called them nasty names they ought be ashamed of themselves and ought resign as well. Are you seriously saying that a bill that might prevent the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression was decided over spite? What? As bad as the Democratic leadership was the Republican leadership was worse. Didn’t like the bill? Did you at least offer some alternatives? No. Where was Republican leadership. (And yes, I’m pointing at you McCain – you should have shown some leadership and the fact you couldn’t accomplish anything points out exactly how bad you are. Ditto on Obama) |
BTW – DKL, I think most Americans are ignorant enough such that Congressional ratings tend to track Presidential ones but will always be somewhat lower. Put an other way I don’t think it tells us much. Of course I think Pelosi and Reid have a lot to be ashamed over. (If they thought there were problems where were the bills the last few years?) But all this just reenforces my “a pox on both their houses” view. I honestly and sincerely don’t think they are taking any of this seriously. And this is a scary situation. To all you Democrats with your “Impeach Bush” bumperstickers, can I get an “Impeach Reid and Pelosi” bumpersticker? |
Clark, Bush and Pelosi and Reid are the ones who are taking this particular massive problem seriously. The problem is that they can’t convince enough of their own parties to do the same. The GOP is especially guilty here. |
It doesn’t matter what Pelosi called the Republicans. The fact is that she had more than 90 members of her own caucus who didn’t vote for the bill that she negotiated. The reason that happened, is because they knew that if the bill failed, they would point a blaming finger at the Republicans and then pass an uncompromised leftist bill. She most likely gave the inflamatory speech in order to guarantee the loss on the bill. Why give a speech like that when you’re trying to secure PASSAGE? Maybe because you want the bill to fail. |
Clark, here is an alternative plan from the Republicans. There was no way a Democratically-controlled Congress was going to let Republicans decide how this was going to go down. |
So, only a third of the Republicans supported it and it is Pelosi’s fault for it failing. I thought that we loved Democrats that bucked the leadership. I fully agree with Clark (#5 and #6). It the two of us can agree, then Washington should be able to pull something out. |
We get this from the recent AP story:
I agree that the Repbulicans who got their wittle feewings hurt and thus decided to take it out on the whole country should be fired immediately. Here is one Republican congressman at least that doesn’t suck:
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From Jim Geraghty:
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Geoff, Barney Frank, who bears more responsibility for this mess than any other single person in government, is lying. First of all, Democrats have a comfortable majority in this Congress. They didn’t need a single Republican vote in order to get this thing past. Second, Americans do not like this bill, and many of them were going to vote for it over objections from their constituents. From what I’ve heard, Congressional offices have been barraged with calls, 9 to 1 against the bill. Speaker Pelosi’s speech convinced Republicans that Democrats were laying a trap for them. Pelosi push this controversial bill under the bipartisan notion that it’s good for the country, and then gave a speech that paints it as a trap for Republicans. With a bill as controversial as this, one can either push forward without looking to cast blame, or she can play it up as self-aggrandizing. She can’t have it both ways. Speaker Pelosi wanted to play it both ways, and that’s what makes her a terrible leader. |
#10 - Yes Pelosi gets the blame. The House of Representatives, unlike the Senate, is absolutely controlled by the majority. There is an old saying that the minority of the House is the most oppressed minority in the country. The minority has absolutely no power in the House. Pelosi had a big press conference where she announced she had reached a deal. She should have known if she had enough votes from her party to pass the bill. The majority should never bring a bill to the floor without the votes to pass it. Pelosi negotiated it with the White House. It was her party’s bill. With 1/3 of the republicans voting for it, she should have been able to deliver the win with votes from her party. She only needed 11 more of the more than 90 that voted against it. This was never the House Republican’s bill. They were never going to get a majority of Republicans to vote for it. It was understood that the Democrats (who have a solid majority in the body) would have to pass it. |
Pelosi failed for not getting more Republicans to vote for it. Either that, or we blame Boehner. |
Speaker Pelosi wanted to play it both ways, and that’s what makes her a terrible leader. But a good politician. Imagine if the Republicans would have fallen for that one! |
The majority should never bring a bill to the floor without the votes to pass it. Have you considered a job as a consultant or something? |
It’s understandable Bush can’t convince people given his lame duck status. That Pelosi or Reid couldn’t means she’s an incompetent leader. End of story.
With few willing to support any compromise bill at all. The problem is that no one wants to imagine compromise. It’s my way or the destruction of the country. |
I think it is silly to blame Pelosi – there is more than enough blame to go around on this. I think the largest issue is that the general public does not understand the need for the “bailout” when in reality the failure of the financial system will hurt everyone, not just in the US either… |
Peter LLC: [trying to have it both ways makes Speaker Pelosi] a good politician. Imagine if the Republicans would have fallen for that one. Actually, she’s a very poor politician. Good politicians don’t get caught doing this sort of thing. Bill Clinton was a good politician, and that’s why he gave Republicans fits — they could never make him pay the price for constantly having it both ways (remember how futile their claims of Clinton flip-flops were?) I repeat: Speaker Pelosi should resign. |
Jota, Really? There is a difference between the Senate and the House. I never knew that. I am now going to demand a refund for my 6.5 years of graduate school in political science. Maybe this is more complex than this petty blame game. |
Pelosi had a big press conference where she announced she had reached a deal. She should have known if she had enough votes from her party to pass the bill. The majority should never bring a bill to the floor without the votes to pass it. The Dems version of Mission Accomplished? |
This is the real problem and why so many Republicans and Democrats didn’t vote for it. If the bill worked all they’d face is people complaining about the negatives of the bill. (For Republicans gripes about socialism, for Democrats, gripes about helping Wall Street but not poor Americans) I’d lay good odds that most of those voting against it were facing tight races where that would matter. So what it came down to was doing the right thing or maintaining their career. |
“my 6.5 years of graduate school in political science” As my grandpa always said, “that and a [Dollar (due to inflation)] will buy you a Coke.” |
The one who should resign is George W. Bush, and he should have done so years ago. |
#23 Many in safe seats voted against the bill (for example, only 4 Republicans from Texas voted for the bill). |
Blame! Find someone to Blame! Doom! Were you guys calling for a resignation of our prez when we found out he lied to get us to go to war? “Congressional offices have been barraged with calls, 9 to 1 against the bill.” And so they did the right thing. Yes, they only did it because their jobs are on the line. But it was the right thing. They do work for us right? It is our tax dollars (or should I say our kids and grandkids tax dollars) we are talking about right?? The only thing this plan would have done is make wall street consulting firms rich. You should consider doing more than just reading the headlines at Drudge. |
Bill and Julie, that has no bearing on the current bill. Furthermore, your positions is (characteristically) a much more extreme position. Bush was elected president by a majority twice. I’m not proposing that Pelosi resign from her seat in Congress, just from her leadership position. The point isn’t to invalidate an election, but to restructure the hierarchy among the elected. Also characteristically, you don’t seem to have thought past the consequences of your rage. if Bush had resigned, Cheney would be president. Is that what you really want? |
“Cheney would be president.” From your mouth to God’s ears. |
Julie: The only thing this plan would have done is make wall street consulting firms rich. You should consider doing more than just reading the headlines at Drudge. So where do I say that this was a good bill, Julie? |
I think the blame of the parties is crazy too. Everyone is playing the game, is the republicans or democrats fault? Neither! They both wanted it to pass, but the American people did not. This wasn’t a victory for a political candidate, it was a victory for the voice of the people in the halls of congress. |
Devyn S: I think it is silly to blame Pelosi — there is more than enough blame to go around on this. I think the largest issue is that the general public does not understand the need for the “bailout” when in reality the failure of the financial system will hurt everyone, not just in the US either… Pelosi has been as emphatic about the need for this bill as anyone. If she’d taken a principled position that this bill was a bad idea, then we’d have something to argue about. If she’d have gotten this bill passed on strict party lines, then we’d have something to talk about. But the Republicans delivered a full third of their caucus, and she couldn’t garner enough votes from her own caucus to put the bill over the top. Hers is a failure of leadership by the standards that she set for herself during the past week. |
Julie, my response to Devyn also responds to your comment. |
Ok, so maybe the Speaker of the House isn’t a good politician. Still, she does have the good sense not to ram a deal through with Democratic support only, and not just to maintain dubious claims to bipartisanship. Besides, resigning smacks of European parliamentary politics–do we really want to go down that road? |
Peter, If she meant what she said in her speech (see #12) then she should have done everything in her power to pass the legislation. If she didn’t mean it, then she should should have opposed the bill. The argument here is that she was blindsided by her own party. She is an ineffective Speaker. I don’t, however, agree with DKL that she should resign. I’m not convinced there is anyone in the Democrat ranks that would be any better or more effective. |
Well I suspect members of congress who voted against the bill will be hearing from all kinds of constituents who are unhappy about 7-10% of their retirement fund disappearing today. I’ll bet it would pass if they voted again tomorrow. (I know I left a message expressing my displeasure with my congressman.) |
Here’s a very interesting set of analyses of the vote today. (HT: Kathryn Jean Lopez at the Corner on National Review Online) |
“Bush was elected president by a majority twice.” I will concede that he was elected by a majority of U.S. voters once (in 2004). Hard to believe that, in combination with GOP leaders, the GOP president could not get more than 33% of his own party to back his own proposal. Well, maybe it is not that hard to believe. |
DKL: “Bush was elected president by a majority twice” Sort of. |
Right. Twice “by a majority” was off by a factor of two. I was inverting the fact that Bill Clinton failed twice to receive a majority. David H, I consider it to be quite remarkable that they could get a full third of Republicans to vote in favor of a bill that (a) made their skin crawl on philosophical grounds, and (b) bailed out the Democrats’ malfeasance. Reagan and Volcker tightened the money supply, and from 1980-1982 there was massive unemployment and double-digit interest rates. But few economists dispute the fact that this cleansed the economy of inflation (which had been double-digit in the late 70s) and set the foundation for more than 20 years of unprecedented growth. Moreover, it’s pretty clear that half-measures could never have accomplished this, but would have both prolonged the economic misery and made it more difficult to correct later. A lot of Republicans feel like a bailout will prolong the current economic problems rather than solve them. They say that if there are bad loans and bad credit and a resulting tightening of the money supply, then the best thing to do is bite the bullet, weather the storm, jettison the nonsense about lending discrimination, and never pursue such aggressive home-lending policies again. It’s the Democrats who have no excuse. Not only did they cause the problem, but solving it by throwing tax money at it is right up their ally. |
DKL: then the best thing to do is bite the bullet, weather the storm Well I suppose following the 1929-1939 “cleansing” model is one way to deal with this. And this is a democracy so if that is what the people want maybe that is what the people will get. It’s the Democrats who have no excuse. True. We get this quote from another recent AP article:
I suppose they all have a “live to fight another day” attitude but it is disappointing. Equally disappointing is how Republicans in congress completely flipped the bird to their own president on this. I suppose President Bush has nothing to lose so he is trying to do the right thing in spite of the ignorance about the risks we take here. But again. When grandma and grandpa look this evening and see than their $500,000 nest egg that is supposed to last them for the next 20 years shrunk to $450,000 in the space of a couple of hours I suspect the calls complaining about No votes will start pouring in to congress and they will feel emboldened to vote Yes later this week. |
1. Why did the GOP administration (apparently agreed to by GOP congressional leaders) propose a bill that no more than one-third of the GOP could support? 2. Why was the GOP unable to stop the Democrats’ malfeasance during the years the GOP controlled the Congress and President? SARCASM ALERT: 3. I assume the people who packaged the subprime loans to disfavored classes, who rated them, who valued them, who sold them, and who purchased them on behalf of Wall Street bankers and hedge funds were all Democrats (perhaps those Wall Street firms and hedge funds were community organizers in disguise)? |
any halfway-reasonable postmortem of the housing crisis runs smack dab through Barney Frank’s congressional district. his hypocrisy in blaming Republicans is beyond belief, although par for the course. whoever above said that Pelosi was intentionally trying to scuttle the bill might be right. what I really want to know though is, how on earth can Congress take a two-day holiday in the midst of this meltdown??? the markets aren’t closed Tuesday and Wednesday, are they? The dow could drop a thousand points before Thursday. |
DKL – I don’t see how delivering 33% of the Republicans is a win on a bill that was supported by their President? I think both sides failed in this miserably, but may change their minds and find a good compromise in the near future. Personally, I am sick of the Dems and Reps blaming each other and thinking the other side can do no good. It is getting downright ludicrous. It seems as if the Reps would be happy if all the Dems disappeared and vice versa… |
And how did the Dems cause this problem? I don’t think the credit crisis has anything to do with either the Dems or Reps – more the market itself and lax fiscal policy by the Fed… |
DavidH, this is old territory. By your childish and ignorant sarcasm alert, it’s obvious that you want to blame it on greed the private sector. You might as well blame it the greed of home buyers wanting more housing than they could afford. In either case, you’d be spinning a yarn based on your pre-conceived notions of how such things work rather than on what actually happened. I’ve already had that conversation with a random john on another thread. The Government Sponsored Enterprises bill, passed in 1992, created quotas for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These quotes encouraged “affordable” and “underserved” mortgages. “Underserved” is officially defined as “low-income census tracts or in low- or middle-income census tracts with high minority populations.” This was a direct response to a study by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, which concluded that home lending practices were highly discriminatory. HUD raised these quotes. First, under Clinton to require 21% of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans to go to “underserved areas.” Then, under Bush, HUD raised the quota for “underserved” area loans to 39%(!) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bundle the mortgages together, and then they insure them. There’s basically zero risk. That’s why they needed a bailout. And the ineffectiveness of the insurance is a large part of what led to the failure of so many other mortgage-backed securities. In 2003, this policy had been underway for a decade, and was wreaking havoc. Here’s an article from The New York Times detailing the argument that people were having about revising oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Barney Frank defends the two entities:
(Frank made statements to this effect for years, and, at the very least, he should recuse himself from the current debate on the solution.) Both Democrats and Republicans share some blame. The Democrats aggressively pursued social policy through America’s lending system, while too many Republicans stood by, afraid to act lest they be called racist for advancing lending practices that disproportionately impacted Hispanics and Blacks; e.g., 20% down payments and tradition debt-to-income ratios as a measure of credit-worthiness. It’s funny you bring up community organizers. ACORN, the group for which Obama worked in Chicago when he was a “community organizer,” aggressively sued banks that used traditional credit-worthiness measures to determine credit-worthiness of loan applicants, arguing that such objective measures were discriminatory. All of this caused the subprime mortgage problem, which caused an anomalous number of home-loan failures, which led to the current credit crisis. In 2005, McCain sponsored the “Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, saying, “If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.” With so many Democrats complaining about alleged Republican cow-towing to “Big Oil,” you would think that someone would want to hold Democrats like Barney Frank, Dodd, and Obama accountable for their corrupt relationship to Big Mortgage. All of these guys received top dollar from large mortgage companies. And thus we see that the principles of economics must be fulfilled, and if the sons of men heed not the principles of economics, casting them aside in the name of diversity, there is much wailing and gnashing of teeth. |
All of this caused the subprime mortgage problem Uhhh…. you totally lost me at this point DKL. I usually don’t see such ridiculous leaps of logic from you. |
Geoff J, I am not sure what the best solution to this mortgage crisis is, but in spite of my misgivings, I’m willing to go with the experts. The economists who I trust (e.g., Larry Kudlow) share my misgivings, but argue convincingly that the bailout is the best solution. That said, one thing that I’m absolutely sure of is this: The current situation has absolutely nothing to do with 1929. By today’s standards, the 1929 US was a third world country. The economy in which the depression occurred is so different from our own that most foreign countries (1st, 2nd, or 3rd word) are more similar to our own economy than to the US in 1929. The claim that this will be 1929 all over again is sensationalistic nonsense that doesn’t even pass the laugh test. Devyn, 12 of the 37 Democratic members of Barney Frank’s own committee (“The House Financial Services Committee”) voted against this bill. It failed because Speaker Pelosi didn’t lead. |
You’ll have to explain to me the jump you see in logic. Without any clear idea of wat you’re referring to, I’ll try to be more clear: There was a government induced abandonment of traditional credit-worthiness measures to increase lending to minorities. This ballooned the subprime mortgage market by filling it with loans to un-credit-worthy borrowers. This caused an anomalous number of loan failures, which caused the current lending crisis. Also, the ballooning of the subprime mortgage market fueled house purchases to unprecedented levels, and created the housing bubble we saw that started in the late-90s and continued until 2006. |
This bill was a horrible idea and I for one am glad it failed. It will not rescue the stock market in any meaningful way, and frankly #41, if granny and grandpa had $500k in stocks instead of safer assets then they were asking for trouble. The banking system needs to be recapitalized badly, but wasting $700b of taxpayer money to assume their bad debts and socialize the losses is not the way to do it. Plus, it’s becoming questionable whether foreign countries are even going to continue loaning us the money to pay for all these things given the administration’s refusal to support the dollar. |
What do you expect them to do? At this point Bush is an albatross around the necks in most of their districts. Siding with him on anything will be used against them just like siding with him will be used against McCain. Like most politicians, they’re worried about saving their own skin and making a few bucks. And I’m surprised that the Republicans seem to be getting off clean for not voting yes when their main defense seems to be “Our feelings were hurt”. |
Geoff, it’s also worth noting that the accusation that the current mess was caused by Republican-driven deregulation and anti-reregulation. This is the exact opposite of the truth. It was Republicans (including McCain) who to pushed for tighter regulatory control and more Congressional oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while the Democrats fought it tooth-and-nail. |
Capitalism implies a free market economy. Free market economy primarily means a system where the buyers and sellers are solely responsible for the choices they make. Something wrong with this? |
DKL, The leap of logic was you pinning the entire subprime meltdown on the attempts of some politicians to help more people become homeowners. Now I certainly will grant that the policies you mentioned contributes in some way to the overall problem I think it is utter silliness to imply that said policies were the primary causes of the problem. Rather I think it is a much safer claim to pin the majority of the blame on other issues like: A) The deregulation in December 2000 sponsored by John McCain’s former financial adviser and campaign co-chair Phil “nation of whiners” Gramm. The law, called the Commodity Futures Modernization Act which was reportedly written by lawyers for the investment. This lovely legislation allowed for the opaque and completely unregulated derivative trading relating to mortgage backed securities (among other things). B) The deep and sustained cuts in interest rates by Alan Greenspan for the first half of this decade that made lending and borrowing too much money more tempting than unregulated people can handle (clearly based on where we are today). In other words, the attempts to help “underserved” people by those bleeding heart Democrats the non-bleeding-heart Republicans decry might have added to the problem, but they didn’t add much in my opinion. As you mentioned, those things had been going on since 1992 and we didn’t see this mess until now so pinning this on that small factor is indeed an unsupportable leap of logic. |
@52, right, because reform/control of Fannie Mae would have threatened the equal-housing-outcomes so important to Democratic voting blocs and financial backers. @53, nothing wrong with that in theory, but in practice there are spillovers to other parts of the company because the folks making now-illiquid loans also make lots of other kinds of loans (i.e., to businesses large and small). those institutions are compromised by having overindulged in these risky instruments, but their failure “spills over” into the rest of the economy. hence they are too important to fail. as just one anecdotal example, a friend of mine is trying to borrow a not-huge-but-not-small sum to start a family business. he put together a sharp application but was denied because, in the words of his loan officer, “we can’t make any loans at all anymore. we don’t even get a response from our loan department these days.” just one example of a spillover… |
Make that “lawyers for the investment banks”. It is also worth noting the Mr. Gramm’s legislation also included the “Enron Loophole”. We get this quote from the wiki:
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oh henry! |
Geoff, it’s your logic that is loopy. Your accusation that cheap mortgages caused the problem reminds me of the “First Citiwide Change Bank” skit on SNL. The bank does nothing but provide change — 10 dimes for a dollar, 5 nickels for a quarter, etc. The punch line: How do they make money? Volume! Of course, you can’t make money by amplifying the frequency of a profit-less transaction. Likewise, you can’t lose money by amplifying the frequency of loss-free transactions. Making loans to credit-worthy borrowers at prevailing rates in an economic environment free of volatile inflation is a loss-free transaction (or, strictly speaking, a loss-controlled transaction, because loss rates are as predictable as they are in the auto-insurance industry; that’s kinda’ the point). If you have credit-worthy borrowers, then you’ll generally get paid back, no matter what the interest rate. (And interests rates should be kept as low they can be kept without risking inflation — that’s why the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates is called monetary policy, not lending policy.) By credit worthy, I’m referring to pre-1992 measures, like the ability to put 20% down and having an appropriate income-to-debt ratio and having a good credit score. And when you abandon the traditional loan-worthiness rules, you introduce the possibility of dramatically increased loan failure rates. Furthermore, trading mortgage-backed securities (MBS) has nothing to do with the current crisis. If the loans are bad, they’re bad no matter who owns them, and if they’re good, then they’re good no matter who owns them. MBS’s simply transfered the ownership of the mortgages. Banks had always sold their mortgages through private transactions. The MBS law allows a mechanism for mortgages to be traded openly in a way that actually increases the accountability and transparency of the mortgage exchange transaction. As it happens, the MBS’s that are at risk are disproportionately subprime, for exactly the reasons that I point out above. Nearly half of these subprime MBS’s are from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who “insured” them, allowing them to pocket a fee from the buyer of the MBS for the insurance that didn’t prove to be worth anything at all. Again, it all leads back to affirmative action in lending. And I’m not sure why anything is worth noting about “The Enron Loophole.” It’s a red-herring. It has less to do with the Enron scandal than Enron Field and chocolate — combined. It remains the law today, and it is seen as harmless except by a select few conspiracy minded populists who blame it for high oil prices(!) Lastly, you seem to be buying into the entire slate of populist conspiracy theories about what’s wrong with the economy. |
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Democrats denouncing regulating Fannie and Freddie in 2004. Geoff, you can bring up Gramm all you want but that doesn’t change the fact that years later, many Republicans were repeatedly requesting more regulation while being blocked by the Dems. The fact that the press is largely ingnoring these facts, instead focusing on Rick Davis, is alarming. |
Take note of the BIll Clinton quote at the end of the previously linked video. |
DKL: Your accusation that cheap mortgages caused the problem Wha…? I never made that accusation. I said that deregulation created an environment that allowed and encouraged people to act in un-self-regulated ways. That is because: 1) Consumers were accepted loans they could not pay in the long run (note that is not a statement about “cheap mortgages” and I still have no idea from whence you pulled that claim) I agree with you should have only offered loans to actually credit-worthy buyers. However, the deregulation I mentioned ended up creating massive incentive for banks and brokers to start offering these “creative” loans we have heard so much about. So you are wrong — it emphatically does not “all lead back” to “affirmative action in lending”. I readily agree that “affirmative action in lending” was a contributing factor but it is utterly incorrect for you to claim that is somehow at the heart of this mess. Rather at the heart of this mess is the ancient human problem of greed and the fact that left unchecked (read: unregulated in this case) people will often act on their greed. |
Tim J, I’m no Democrat, I’m just an annoyed independent, so I don’t mind you pointing out times when Democrats fought against needed regulation at all. |
Geoff: The deep and sustained cuts in interest rates by Alan Greenspan for the first half of this decade that made lending and borrowing too much money more tempting… Geoff: I never made that accusation [that cheap mortgages caused the problem] You can forgive me for being confused by this. Furthermore, the “creative” new loans you hear about were the ones that Fannie and Freddie concocted to service the sub-prime market. Lastly, as I said, banks always sold mortgages. The MBS system increased transparency. And the problem isn’t that they went into the same black whole that most securities go into. The problem is that they aren’t worth anything. And the reason they aren’t worth anything is because they’re saturated with an anomalous number of bad, subprime mortgages. |
BTW — I am wondering if there is really something to Jota’s #8 conspiracy theory. I suspect that there will be nothing like a few days of the stock market crashing to get the people on Main Street to see that their congressional representative voting for this bill is not just bailing out Wall Street. I predict it will pass easily later this week. |
Ah yes, I do forgive you for being confused by that DKL (#63). Lower interest rate would not have been a problem at all had the proper regulations been in place to restrain the rampant human greed. The combination of the deregulation and the extended low interest rate from the Fed proved to be a powerful and dangerous combination from 2000-2006. As and aside — Fannie and Freddie got into the “Alt-A” market only after they saw actual subprime lenders making a killing. Alt-A loans were never as “creative” as true sub-prime loans but they were definitely a problem. Fannie and Freddie are the perfect example of “privatizing profit and socializing losses”. Those organizations needed to be entirely government run or entirely private. The hybrid situation made them reckless because they knew there was a safety net to catch them. |
Howard:So, what is a fair price for each of us to pay for easy availability of other kinds of loans? I can’t write you a regression equation for that dependent variable, but one way or another the bad debts need to be lifted off the balance sheets of lending organizations. I can see why some would rather do this with loans than with outright purchases, but I can see a moral hazard in the loans as well. That said, people are too hung up on the $700B and $2300-per-person figure, as if it is merely a debit. Much of those expenditures will be recovered as the acquired home loans are repaid, and thus have (some) value (not none). |
They’re not going to be repaid! These debts are being defaulted on all over the place. Banks will use this facility to dump junior MBS tranches, etc. that are essentially worthless. The government will overpay for them. It’s already been leaked extensively that Treasury intends to pay above-market value for them–that is the whole point of this program. Banks can already sell them for market price, but they don’t want to let them go that cheap, even though that is what they are worth. Dumping them on the taxpayer at inflated prices is of course an attractive option if you are a financial company. But it is an option we can ill afford. Anyone maintaining the government will make money on this deal is being disingenuous. |
woodboy, I agree that it’s unlikely they’ll clear a profit on the deal, but I doubt that the full figure will be lost as you seem to suggest. part of the problem here is that “one bad apple spoils the bunch” such that in a bundle of subprime mortgages it’s hard to know which ones will foreclose vs. being repaid, and that uncertainty is driving down the price / making them illiquid TODAY. over time however markets will clear and we’ll know how many of those mortgages are still worth something. don’t mistake the short run for the long run. for instance, I have a subprime mortgage but am at very little risk of default. there are many others like me out there. not every such loan will be worthless. btw Thomas Sowell wrote a nice version of what DKL said about the root causes: Link here. |
Woodboy, These aren’t just paper debts. These are mortgages on actual brick and mortar homes. Those homes are not worthless. If the economy stabilizes the homes will be come worth more and more over time. Now the problem will be that that federal government is not currently equipped to deal with owning homes all over the country. I have no idea how that will be sorted out over time. Of course many/most of these home still have families living in them who are currently in fear of foreclosure. So Uncle Sam would be the new bank. The Democrats included rather vague language in the bill that requires the “federal property managers” to seek to modify existing loans or help the homeowners refinance into a “HOPE loan” from the FHA as described with the law that passed in July. The upshot should be fewer foreclosures which will prop up tumbling housing prices all over the country. Of course you are right that there will likely be a real loss involved overall but that loss would surely not be even in the same zip code a $700B. |
I am confused. After John McCain sped to DC in the batmobile last week and then proved useless in the process of shaping a compromise his campaign claimed that his great accomplishment was getting House Republicans onboard. Senator McCain should not just suspend his campaign, he should withdraw his candidacy. Clearly he is a failed leader. On a more serious note it is clear that cowardly House members from both sides wanted this to pass without their votes. Shame on them! Stand up for what is right and damn the political consequences. I’m impressed by Rep. Cannon, a lame duck, who did what was right here. Perhaps if we had more lame ducks this thing would have passed. To bad congress is more interested in staying in power than in exercising that power for good. Cowards. |
Geoff J, Here is a realization that I had the other day. Some of these loans are second mortgages on house that are underwater. Those seconds might in fact be worthless because no money will be recovered on them in a foreclosure. But I agree that in general the derivatives should be worth more than 22 cents on the dollar in the long term. |
Geoff J, arj is right about many of the mortgages being seconds. Plus, there’s a more than reasonable probability that some not-insignificant fraction of the homes will never sell (e.g., 1% to 2%, or even more). Look for a lot of people to return to renting after ditching the house that cost them a mint even though it was 2-full-hours outside of the city wherein they worked. And when you have an entire neighborhood of foreclosures, nobody’s going to want to be the first to purchase there. Nor will the buyers’ market make it desirable to do so. And the cost of maintaining longer-term vacant properties could easily eclipse whatever money could be extracted from their sale. For my part, I don’t want tumbling house prices to be propped up. Everybody talks about the housing bubble like it’s a 21st century phenomenon. In 1998, I paid what I thought was an insane amount for a starter home — $60k more than it had sold for just a couple years earlier. By just 2002, the value of my house had increased to more than double the (already inflated) amount that I’d paid for it. To put this in perspective for you, home prices in most areas have retreated close to 2002/2003 levels; my house is still worth more than double the (already inflated) amount that I paid for it. The reason the housing spike seems so very recent is because in 2001 housing prices in major metro areas went from merely unaffordable to profoundly unaffordable. The housing market remains substantially overpriced, and needs to fall much further. As it stands, the large metro areas of the USA are great places to live if you already own a home. If you don’t, heaven help you. oh henry!, thanks for the link to the Sewell article. He’s actually an award-winning economist, so he’s a much better source for this kind of theory than I am. |
arj, the word is that about 25 House Republicans voted “No” when they saw Pelosi’s people giving Democrats in tight races permission to vote “no.” Thus, Speaker Pelosi did her math wrong. She gave enough passes to the Democrats to push the bill through based on the assumption that she’d get 90 Republican votes (as promised). Speaker Pelosi didn’t count on them getting wind of the passes she gave to her fellow Democrats. You cannot expect the Republicans to vote for a deal that leading Democrats didn’t even think was good enough for their own ranks. Speaker Pelosi was reaching across the isle to stab Republicans in the back. Again, Speaker Pelosi’s leadership is disastrous. She should resign. |
Paulson should resign for bringing such a bold-faced proposal of grand theft of the american people. There’s no way his proposal was going to be acceptable as proposed. He and Bush seem to be saying, “Just put 700 billion in the bag and noone get’s hurt.” This is the most disgraceful proposal I’ve ever seen. Pelosi can resign too if you like. I have no tears for her. I’d love to see Sheehan take her place. |
#68,69. I would agree with you if we were just talking plain mortgages. These are no longer just mortgages on actual brick and mortar homes, they are more complex derivitaves of mortgages. The mortgages are packaged into CDOs that divide up the risk unequally. Junior tranches take the first losses (and are theoretically compensated for this risk with a higher coupon) and so are the first to be wiped out. Also as someone else pointed out, there are a number of second/piggyback mortgages which are worthless or close to it given the recent decline in value of the collateral securing the debt due to falling home values (second mortgages are junior to firsts). Now it is true that there are several mortgage assets of reasonable quality on which the holder will expect to take a haircut, but will still retain significant value. But if given the chance, which type of asset do you think the banks will dump on the government? Furthermore, the $700b is not a one time expenditure, but rather Treasury is seeking authority to buy/hold up to $700b at a time. Under their proposal, they would be free to sell them and then acquire more, as long as they didn’t hold more than 700b at a time. So it’s really a balance sheet cap more than a total loss cap. So who knows what the actual losses could end up being, but without proper oversight and accountability, I would expect them to be substantial. |
Tim J, (re #59), the video that you link to is a must watch! It’s nothing short of extraordinary. Congressmen Meeks, Waters, Clay, Davis, and Frank are the stupidest, most offensive elected officials in our republic. Their statements in the video are among the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in their rambling, incoherent utterances were they even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in attendance at that hearing is dumber now for having listened to them. I award them no points, and may God have mercy on their souls. |
DKL, it’s amusing that you’d use the word “stupidest” to criticize the lack of intelligence of others. although I wholeheartedly agree with your criticisms. btw can you source your comment in #73? Doesn’t sound outside the realm of possibility…I was quite puzzled that so few dems were on board. |
oh henry!, Carl Rove gave that explanation tonight on one of the Fox News shows. Other sources confirm parts of it. The Hill reports that:
And a variety of other papers note that the Democrats did very little whipping up of support and generally exerted very little pressure on the ranks. This is how things go down when the leaders are giving free passes — they’ve already identified the pro-votes, so they don’t exert leverage anywhere else. Doing anything more eliminates deniability. This falls under the category of “procedural issues,” which Congressmen don’t typically complain about, because they look very whiny when they do and it’s difficult to explain Congressional procedures to voters. Imagine how it would look if they said, “Pelosi was giving passes to Democrats in tight races?” She’d just deny it anyway. If explanations of stuff like this are to make sense, they must be expressed by 3rd parties. |
DKL, (Re: 76) A simple wrong would have done just fine … :) |
RickFFM, I’m glad you caught that BTW, Here’s a link to the SNL First Citiwide change bank ad. |
DKL (58), That’s not to say that MBSs are a bad idea; I still think they’re a wonderful idea. But pricing them assuming historic levels of default when lending standards have fallen through the floor is, how shall I put it, not the brightest of ideas. I’m not a quant, so I have no idea, personally, how one should price an MBS but, when the MBS market reemerges, I assume that the quants will price them using better models. |
DKL, The tight races explanation makes more sense than the one we were given by the GOP: Pelosi’s speech hurt my feelings. I hope the public doesn’t swallow that one. I’d guess that there is a lot of scrambling going on in the House right now to patch this up. |
Sam B: But pricing them assuming historic levels of default when lending standards have fallen through the floor is, how shall I put it, not the brightest of ideas. That’s exactly correct. The MBS’s are not the problem, but the fact that the mortgages held within them were bad. The reason they sold based on faulty estimations of defaults was that Fannie and Freddie insured them. It all points back to bad mortgages in the subprime sector. |
Thus, Speaker Pelosi did her math wrong. She gave enough passes to the Democrats to push the bill through based on the assumption that she’d get 90 Republican votes (as promised). Speaker Pelosi didn’t count on them getting wind of the passes she gave to her fellow Democrats. She did indeed do her math wrong. She took Boehner’s vote count at face value and added it to hers. But the fact that she was planning to give passes to Democrats in tight races and write off the far left was no secret. Republicans planned to do the same, but were betrayed by some who had not been issued passes. DKL’s arguments remind me of conservative caricature of liberals blaming everybody but criminals for crime. When a bill that should have passed loses, the responsibility to for its defeat lies with those who voted against it. Pelosi’s performance is a matter of internal Democratic business, which should be addressed when the new Congress convenes in January. Her performance yesterday certainly strengthens the argument that she should be dumped. You just can’t get your math wrong on something like this. But blaming her for the whole debacle is like blaming the cop for not preemptively arresting a thief for “looking suspicious.” |
DKL, Which is to say, yes, Fannie and Freddie have culpability. But so do Finch’s and S&P, which apparently either weren’t competent to evaluate the risk or were so beholden to their clients that they mispriced the risk. The banks share culpability because they were pressured into buying subprime mortgages just because Bear Stearns was doing it. And the stupid people who bought houses with interest-only mortgages. There’s enough blame for everybody except maybe those people who bought houses that they could afford with 20% down and traditional mortgages and those of us who rent. |
I am a lender and this quote is right on the money. “The problem was that MBSs were priced assuming that 2% of the mortgages were bad and would fail when, it turns out, 4% or 6% or maybe 10% were bad and have or will fail” DKL is also correct when he says that political pressure loosened credit requirements |
Devyn S. (#45) You asked: And how did the Dems cause this problem? Watch this: |
The credit rating agency model is flawed. These people should be paid by those buying the bonds, not those issuing them, otherwise it represents a huge conflict of interest. We’ve all seen exactly how much a AAA rating is worth… |
Deregulation not to blame: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_wallison&sid=a6M1QA55PB9Y |
Wallison is full of crap Tim. He conveniently forgot to mention the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (signed in December 2000 and sponsored) in the article. That is the legislation that removed all regulations from the fake insurance known as “credit default swaps”. It was the rampant abuse of these credit default swaps that can be pointed to as one of the primary changes that brought us to our current mess. |
#90, That’s why AIG failed |
Geoff, Point taken. |
The CFMA didn’t really “remove” regulation of CDSs. It did codify the exclusion of bilateral swap agreements from CFTC oversight, but they weren’t ever really being regulated before that legislation by the CFTC and it was not exactly clear whether they had the authority to do so (probably yes). It did remove a certain legal risk from swap contracts, and they did explode in popularity sometime after that, but I’m not so sure you could point conclusively to one causing the other. People will always find a way to take on more risk than is prudent, especially if they know they’ll be bailed out if they fail. |
It seems that there is more than enough blame to go around. Further some stupidly put non-pragmatic ideology ahead of thinking through consequences. I agree in minimal regulation. However if something is going to be de-regulated then you better damn well make sure that other policies are synced with that. They weren’t which is why the derivatives were a mess. Likewise if you are going to push risky loans to get more homes for the poor then you better make sure you have enough regulation. Instead we ended up with a “compromise” which was the worst of both. With regard to leadership, I think everyone thinks Bush is a lost cost. Even Republicans. Blaming Republicans for not supporting Bush is ridiculous unless you think Pelosi is as bad as Bush. (For the record I do – but thankfully she has less power) Were I a Democrat though I’d be seriously pissed. Pelosi hasn’t done hardly any of the things she promised. With regards to McCain if I hadn’t already been pushed over the line with regards to him this last week sure would have done it. And yes, I think his inability to bring Republicans on board is evidence that many Republicans really don’t see McCain as a real leader. What’s more interesting is the lack of leadership over Democrats that Obama showed. (Which I’ve not seen too many comment on) |
Clark: “I think his inability to bring Republicans on board is evidence that many Republicans really don’t see McCain as a real leader.” Or that they wanted re-election. 2004 taught many Reps. about when to go with the party and when to watch your butt. Congress just lived up to its approval rating is all. It’s not a reflection of McCain, at all. It’s a reflection of partisan congress. Pelosi leads Congress and Pelosi killed the bill and she’ll be going down in flames soon enough. |