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	<title>Comments on: Government Is the Bail Out Writ Large</title>
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	<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm</link>
	<description>Thoughts and Asides by Peculiar People</description>
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		<title>By: DKL</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92447</link>
		<dc:creator>DKL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2008 01:46:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92447</guid>
		<description>I didn&#039;t make a live debate thread, because I didn&#039;t think that there&#039;d be interest. I&#039;ll be posting my analysis later tonight. 

[update: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/02/thoughts-on-the-palin-debate.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here it is&lt;/a&gt;]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I didn&#8217;t make a live debate thread, because I didn&#8217;t think that there&#8217;d be interest. I&#8217;ll be posting my analysis later tonight. </p>
<p>[update: <a href="http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/02/thoughts-on-the-palin-debate.htm" rel="nofollow">here it is</a>]</p>
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		<title>By: CJ Douglass</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92446</link>
		<dc:creator>CJ Douglass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2008 01:06:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92446</guid>
		<description>Where&#039;s the VP debate live thread? 

Anyway, I&#039;m glad she mentioned the &quot;maverick&quot; bit about McCain. I&#039;ve never heard that before.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Where&#8217;s the VP debate live thread? </p>
<p>Anyway, I&#8217;m glad she mentioned the &#8220;maverick&#8221; bit about McCain. I&#8217;ve never heard that before.</p>
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		<title>By: woodboy</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92440</link>
		<dc:creator>woodboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 17:47:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92440</guid>
		<description>I guess it depends on whether or not you trust the government to do what is right. I for one do not. Even if you stick to economic issues for the last year, their track record is not too good. These are the same people who were crowing about how the Economic Stimulus Act would save the economy and we&#039;d have a robust recovery in the second half of &#039;08. Or the emergency rate cuts that would save the stock market. Or the money that they swore they would never have to use to buy Fannie and Freddie. Government intervention in the markets does not work, it never has. The stock market will continue lower, no doubt about it.

I agree people are under-educated on this issue, but I wouldn&#039;t say anyone who opposes it doesn&#039;t understand it necessarily. And you&#039;re right, Congresspeople were hoping it would pass, but didn&#039;t want to vote for it themselves. I imagine they will pass it tomorrow though on the second try.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess it depends on whether or not you trust the government to do what is right. I for one do not. Even if you stick to economic issues for the last year, their track record is not too good. These are the same people who were crowing about how the Economic Stimulus Act would save the economy and we&#8217;d have a robust recovery in the second half of &#8216;08. Or the emergency rate cuts that would save the stock market. Or the money that they swore they would never have to use to buy Fannie and Freddie. Government intervention in the markets does not work, it never has. The stock market will continue lower, no doubt about it.</p>
<p>I agree people are under-educated on this issue, but I wouldn&#8217;t say anyone who opposes it doesn&#8217;t understand it necessarily. And you&#8217;re right, Congresspeople were hoping it would pass, but didn&#8217;t want to vote for it themselves. I imagine they will pass it tomorrow though on the second try.</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff J</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92438</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoff J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 14:55:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92438</guid>
		<description>Woodboy: &lt;i&gt;just because that is the notion being pitched does not make it so&lt;/i&gt;

Yup, I fully understand that.  (That&#039;s why I specifically called it &quot;the notion being pitched&quot; instead of &quot;The Truth&quot;).  So it comes down to a judgment call.  With the proverbial house on fire I side with the folks that say let&#039;s turn on the water hoses right now and contain this as much as possible immediately.  Yes, there is a risk that doing so will not contain the fire after and will just add a big water bill to the fire damage.  I just happen to believe in this case that the Republican and Democratic leaders are correct in this case that waiting poses a much greater risk than acting. 

I think most in congress believe that too but they are more worried about offending their under-educated (on this issue) constituents than doing what they believe is best for the country.  It seems to me that many of these congressmen were voting no and praying for it to pass anyway.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Woodboy: <i>just because that is the notion being pitched does not make it so</i></p>
<p>Yup, I fully understand that.  (That&#8217;s why I specifically called it &#8220;the notion being pitched&#8221; instead of &#8220;The Truth&#8221;).  So it comes down to a judgment call.  With the proverbial house on fire I side with the folks that say let&#8217;s turn on the water hoses right now and contain this as much as possible immediately.  Yes, there is a risk that doing so will not contain the fire after and will just add a big water bill to the fire damage.  I just happen to believe in this case that the Republican and Democratic leaders are correct in this case that waiting poses a much greater risk than acting. </p>
<p>I think most in congress believe that too but they are more worried about offending their under-educated (on this issue) constituents than doing what they believe is best for the country.  It seems to me that many of these congressmen were voting no and praying for it to pass anyway.</p>
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		<title>By: woodboy</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92436</link>
		<dc:creator>woodboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 13:23:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>#43, the Dow is a small index, true, but it portrays market activity well. If you prefer, use the S&amp;P 500. They never diverge to any significant degree. And the stock market is a great predictor of GDP/unemployment. The difference is the stock market is forward discounting, so problems show up there first, while GDP and unemployment are lagging indicators. I am not aware of any recessionary period where the stock market has not fallen.

Joe Six-Pack is going to feel the pinch for a long time regardless of any legislation that is passed. We should not expect lenders to be as liberal as they were the last several years for a good long time to come.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#43, the Dow is a small index, true, but it portrays market activity well. If you prefer, use the S&amp;P 500. They never diverge to any significant degree. And the stock market is a great predictor of GDP/unemployment. The difference is the stock market is forward discounting, so problems show up there first, while GDP and unemployment are lagging indicators. I am not aware of any recessionary period where the stock market has not fallen.</p>
<p>Joe Six-Pack is going to feel the pinch for a long time regardless of any legislation that is passed. We should not expect lenders to be as liberal as they were the last several years for a good long time to come.</p>
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		<title>By: woodboy</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92435</link>
		<dc:creator>woodboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 13:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>#36, just because that is the notion being pitched does not make it so. And there are a ton of economists who also disagree with the plan, like the U. Chicago group that sent the letter to Congress. I guess it&#039;s not much of an issue as the bailout will pass tomorrow. Ultimately the plan will fail, they will come back asking for more, which we will give them, and a few years down the road we&#039;ll have to recapitalize the banks anyway, so I&#039;d rather just see us do it now.

As for the regulation, i also have no doubt there will be a lot of new regulations. There always are after a crisis. However, they won&#039;t prevent the next one. It&#039;s the economic cycle, boom and bust.

And yes, banks are in the business of lending, but if they are deleveraging they will use new money to bolster capital rather than originate new loans. And in an environment of falling asset values, banks are less likely to lend or be much more careful about who they lend to.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#36, just because that is the notion being pitched does not make it so. And there are a ton of economists who also disagree with the plan, like the U. Chicago group that sent the letter to Congress. I guess it&#8217;s not much of an issue as the bailout will pass tomorrow. Ultimately the plan will fail, they will come back asking for more, which we will give them, and a few years down the road we&#8217;ll have to recapitalize the banks anyway, so I&#8217;d rather just see us do it now.</p>
<p>As for the regulation, i also have no doubt there will be a lot of new regulations. There always are after a crisis. However, they won&#8217;t prevent the next one. It&#8217;s the economic cycle, boom and bust.</p>
<p>And yes, banks are in the business of lending, but if they are deleveraging they will use new money to bolster capital rather than originate new loans. And in an environment of falling asset values, banks are less likely to lend or be much more careful about who they lend to.</p>
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		<title>By: nasamomdele</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92434</link>
		<dc:creator>nasamomdele</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 13:12:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92434</guid>
		<description>DKL,

I would love to see a correlation between the Dow and GDP, unemployment, etc. The Dow is such a small index, it only does a fair job of portraying market activity. I think Clark is right on this one. Lending rates for banks are out of control right now and it&#039;s only a matter of time before Joe Six-Pack feels the pinch. 

Thank goodness for a better-informed Senate.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DKL,</p>
<p>I would love to see a correlation between the Dow and GDP, unemployment, etc. The Dow is such a small index, it only does a fair job of portraying market activity. I think Clark is right on this one. Lending rates for banks are out of control right now and it&#8217;s only a matter of time before Joe Six-Pack feels the pinch. </p>
<p>Thank goodness for a better-informed Senate.</p>
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		<title>By: Curtis</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92433</link>
		<dc:creator>Curtis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 06:37:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92433</guid>
		<description>Just put 830 billion dollars in the bag and noone gets hurt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just put 830 billion dollars in the bag and noone gets hurt.</p>
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		<title>By: Clark</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92428</link>
		<dc:creator>Clark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:22:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92428</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;i&gt;No, I’m not saying “let most of the economy blow up,” because the financial industry is just a fraction of the economy. I don’t believe their blackmail that everyone will die unless we hand over the money they demand. If half the banks in America go under, we’ll do business as before with the half that remain.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

John, I think you are seriously underestimating how interrrelated the economy is.  To quote Donne, &quot;no man is an island.&quot;

DKL, I understand what you are saying but I think you still have to acknowledge they are measuring different things.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><i>No, I’m not saying “let most of the economy blow up,” because the financial industry is just a fraction of the economy. I don’t believe their blackmail that everyone will die unless we hand over the money they demand. If half the banks in America go under, we’ll do business as before with the half that remain.</i></p></blockquote>
<p>John, I think you are seriously underestimating how interrrelated the economy is.  To quote Donne, &#8220;no man is an island.&#8221;</p>
<p>DKL, I understand what you are saying but I think you still have to acknowledge they are measuring different things.</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff J</title>
		<link>http://www.mormonmentality.org/2008/10/01/government-is-the-bail-out-writ-large.htm/comment-page-1#comment-92427</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoff J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:17:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mormonmentality.org/?p=977#comment-92427</guid>
		<description>DKL: &lt;i&gt;Unemployment may be edging upwards, but it’s no where close to a level that puts the economy in jeopardy.&lt;/i&gt;

What is happening this month is entirely beside the point I was making.  I am more concerned about what might happen in six months if the credit markets remained largely frozen.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DKL: <i>Unemployment may be edging upwards, but it’s no where close to a level that puts the economy in jeopardy.</i></p>
<p>What is happening this month is entirely beside the point I was making.  I am more concerned about what might happen in six months if the credit markets remained largely frozen.</p>
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