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After “that one” and “I’m going to whip him,” I’m interested to see which extremely awkward phrase McCain will use tonight. |
We should keep a tally of McCain’s “fight”s. I am excited–have been saving my Ben and Jerry’s specifically for this occasion. |
I’m really curious to see if McCain is going to alienate the wing-nut portion of the Republican part by talking about the issues. But I suppose they gravitate more to Palin anyway. I say to hell with ‘em John! |
We definitely need a drinking game for this debate. During the first debate, it would have been McCain saying, “He just doesn’t understand” and Obama calling McCain “John,” or maybe his saying, “I agree with John” The second debate would have been every time that either candidate gave a stupid answer. Second thought, that wouldn’t work, because we’d have had to drink after every answer. So what’s the drinking game for tonight? |
Personally, during the second, town-hall style of debate, I’d have like to have seen some Gore-type tactics used by one of the candidates. Remember when Gore walked up to Bush when Bush was answering a question, coming uncomfortably close? I think it would have been great for McCain to approach Obama from the side, while Obama was answering a question, and smack him on the top of the head. When the attention turned to him, McCain could just shrug and say, “I was just swatting at a fly.” It wouldn’t have hurt for him to do it two or three times. |
“My Friends” = take a drink |
anyone else see “fits”? |
i’m trying to wrap my head around a mormon drinking game. someone needs to enlighten me. |
Steve, that sounds perfect. mfranti, we’ll be taking NyQuil shots. For purely medicinal purposes. |
The only reason I’m watching is to see how awkward it will be when McCain tried to inject “Barack Hussein Obama is friends with terrorists!” into one of his answers. |
jjohnson, you obviously have never seen Kevin Nealon’s Mr. Subliminal on SNL. |
Hey, I’ll take McCain making me laugh like Mr. Subliminal over that last debate any day. In fact, skip the debate and do 30 minutes of stand-up and I may switch my vote. |
This is so disappointing. People, where are your priorities? On a night when you can watch a National League championship game between the Phillies and the Dodgers which could decide who goes to the World Series, you are planning to tune in to a deabte between Obama and McCain? Can you possible be serious? Somehow I had the impression that you were all sane but just a little weird, now I don’t know. Both candidates have taken firm stands against torture, why do you insist on subjecting yourselves to this? |
Mark, perhaps we should set up an alternative NLCS party thread. |
It would attract a funner group of people. In a ball game, if you insult somebody by throwing at him, you can expect some punches to be thrown your way. Tonight those two bozos will stand there and insult one another and yet still continue with those phony baloney smiles. they obviously hate each others’ guts but will still say dumb stuff like “My good friend John”. That’s just sick. Be a man! Charge the mound with a bat in your hand! |
Watching the second debate was an excruciating experience. There are many things I’d rather do than go through that again – like sawing between my toes with a razor blade or watching the Shopping Network. However, there might be one reason to watch tonight’s debate. I have a theory that McCain is on the edge – if there is actual eye contact between the candidates, McCain will pick up a chair and huck it at Obama. |
Hey everyone. Hope you have a good time. Me, I give up. I’m going to write in Mitt Romney. I’m thinking we need that financial savvy he showed during the Salt Lake Olympics. |
“Personally, during the second, town-hall style of debate, I’d have like to have seen some Gore-type tactics used by one of the candidates” McCain tried this but it didn’t work out in the last debate. He only looked like an Alzheimer’s patient wondering around the stage -lost, until Obama took him by the shoulders and turned him around smiling broadly at the very end. That moment -McCain’s lost old man walk about moment- is equivalent to Bush daddy glancing down at him watch back in 92 but probably worst. Also McCain has had the wrong strategy from the start. When Obama talked the economy, health care and tax cuts to the middle and poor class, McCain put the war in Iraq and war on terror, leadership/experience at the centre of his campaign. But now McCain has had to change to the economy and now that he’s down so far he’s looking to change again! No one ever won an election by changing their message half way through the campaign. |
Good luck with that. It’s too bad the Republican party has already found it’s next star, I don’t think Romney’s going to get a chance in 2012 or 2016 either. |
#13, 14- I’m with you. When the Dodgers are playing, I’m watching. #6 Steve, You forgot “Maverick” of all things. |
McCain’s not going to use Maverick. That’s Palin’s line. |
Okay, everyone, this is good–this is the type of pre-debate commentary that I’m looking for. Steve: Main Street and Wall Street also need to be on there. Maybe golden parachutes. Definitely “recovery.” Anyone reading DKL’s comments: As the official poster of this post, I do not endorse debate-watching activities that may or may not result in intoxication coupled with nasal decongestion. But have fun with that, DKL :). Phillies/Dodgers fans: Would you mind popping over every once in a while and giving us an update on the score? Just as a public service? 27 minutes and counting, according to my laptop… |
Phillies up, 1-0 after half an inning. Rollins led off the top of the first with a home run against Billingsley. It’s not looking good for the Dodgers. |
my nominations for drinking game. McCain: Obama: |
What’s up with that pink scarf? |
“Can you believe it?” That’s not a Russert line. That’s a Joe Castiglione line (radio broadcaster for the Red Sox). |
I’m watching MSNBC’s online broadcast. Maybe the TV version didn’t show that prelude stuff? |
Okay, folks, we’re at T minus 6:30, and I’m watching C-Span. The camera actually just zoomed in on Mitt Romney, of all people. He was muttering something to the person next to him (couldn’t tell who it was) and he looked annoyed. Right now, everyone in the hall is pretty quiet–this is more reverent than a sacrament meeting. Okay, and now a lady in a black dress and pink scarf is giving people instructions–and now Bob’s on. Okay, enjoy! |
I have high hopes for Bob as moderator–the others have been push-overs. |
Fashin commentary #1: Bob Scieffer: red and blue tie undecided as to points for whom… And slightly confusing, politically… |
Did McCain make the right choice of tie? I’m not sure… |
I like McCain’s tie in abstract, but I’m not sure about it with that suit. |
Tagore, glad to see you and I are focused on the most important things. ESO–Hi!!! Hope the B&Js is good. Is Obama going gray? More Bingo car/drinking game words: |
It has really struck me in this election cycle that America, apparently, no longer has a working class. Now everyone who is not rich is middle class. I feel more working than middle, but whatever….. |
Obama: |
True, ESO–is it because everyone has middle class ambition? Is working class now an insult? Does the middle class vote the most? Joe the plumber. What’s not to love? |
His sixpack? |
Sharp attack by McCain. Literally evokes an “Average Joe.” |
I wonder if Joe’s watching this? Now THAT would be a drinking game… |
I want McCain to spread his wealth around |
Obama is distorting: McCain isn’t looking to give tax cuts to the rich — he’s looking to extend the time horizon of the current tax regime. Furthermore, plus 50% of earners don’t pay income tax — it’s mathematically impossible for 95% of Americans get a tax cut. |
McCain asks why you would want to increase anyone’s taxes right now. Um, maybe because we have to pay for stuff? |
I think I’ve heard this conversation before |
Wealt redistribution: discuss. |
The problem with Obama’s math is this: Small businesses (S corps and LLC’s) pay taxes as individuals. Almost all of them earn way, way more than $250K, though Obama made the unbelievably ignorant assertion in the last debate that most small businesses aren’t earning more than $250K. Thus, you’re increasing taxes on most small businesses, which decreases their ability to employ. Since most jobs are provided by small businesses, this has a direct impact on the economy. |
[still waiting for McCain to mention earmarks] |
I suspect earmarks are coming….NOW |
How does Obama go through the budget line-by-line without a line-item veto (which the Supreme Court — with pretty good reason — has determined will take a Constitutional amendment) |
Ahhhh Bob is interested in getting the question answered. How frustrating for him. DKL–maybe he got the memo about earmarks? |
Hmmm–maybe I zoned, but I didn’t hear him talk about line-by-line, although I would welcome such an amendment. I thought he was talking about programs. There are the earmarks. And the projector–I was hoping for a new illustration. |
Top of the 3rd, 3-0 Philly. In this inning, Billingsley has given up two runs on two singles, two walks, and a wild pitch. Now the bases are loaded with two out. |
So what is it we need, then– a hatchet or a scalpel? |
That was a good line from McCain–”you should have run 4 years ago” |
“If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run four years ago.” Ouch. McCain lands an uppercut. |
Yea for Mark Brown!!! So a debate friend is asking if it’s the Phillies that have the bases loaded? Oh, never mind. |
Tagore–both–clearly “Americans are angry” |
It looks like McCain actually showed up to this debate. It’s about time. |
McCain looking surprisingly fresh…Obama looking a little rattled…. Does it really matter though? |
I wonder what they’re writing? How much do you want to bet that they both have little voodoo dolls and straight pins down there? |
I wonder how his proposed Town Halls really would have changed things? They seem to say the same things over and over again at these debates–I am guessing those meetings would have been the same. |
Tough, not ugly. Hmm. |
I love how a Republican wants to make campaign spending an issue the first time they have been trumped. |
Actually, about half of McCain’s ads have been negative. 75% of Obama’s have been negative. |
Who cares if the ads are negative? It’s a campaign. People should expect negativity. |
ESO, the issue is that Obama actually committed to accepting government funding and the funding caps associated with it, and then backed out of it. It’s not campaign spending, but Obama’s honesty that McCain is questioning. |
Ya, McCain brought his game….but that smiley look is creeepy… |
This feels oddly like a companionship inventory…. |
DKL–I recognize that as a separate (not inconsequential) issue. It has been a standard stump line in both McCain’s and Palin’s speeches that they are being “out-spended”–it is part of their underdog spiel. |
Ah, and the gloves come off. McCain is mad! |
Now I’m waiting for McCain to explode…it might happen. |
Naomi–I can’t believe for a second that there ever could have been any contention at a companionship inventory with you. |
“I have the scars to prove it” is my favorite McCain-ism. The lighting tonight is not friendly to McCain. Ugh. Let’s get off this topic. They’re both annoying. |
Obama’s answer about “disagreeing without being disagreeable” bordered on incoherent. Obama is clearly rattled. |
McCain has been reading DKL |
McCain definitely loses the contest when it comes to reaction/listening shots. He needs to work on that. |
To be honest, I don’t care that much about Ayres (sp?) or ACORN. To be fair, I also don’t give much credence to Troopergate (in fact, I think that calling it Troopergate elevates it to a status that it doesn’t deserve) |
Obama’s political career was actually launched in second grade when he wrote to his teacher that he wanted to be president |
McCain is lying about Obama launching his campaign from Ayer’s house. He then pulls the annoying “facts are facts” just like he did with Romney. |
10 points for Bob. Great question. |
ESO: Obama’s political career was actually launched in second grade when he wrote to his teacher that he wanted to be president Yep. That’s when an ACORN worker registered him to vote for the first time. |
ACORN works in Indonesia, too? |
Oh, now John cares about special need….. |
Has anyone ever used the word “cockamamie” in a Presidential debate before? |
ESO: ACORN works in Indonesia, too? Evil is an outreach project. |
cockamamie…that was funny. |
Cockamamie: |
I was going to make a little joke about McCain’s age and his consequent access to antiquated vocabulary, but it’s a low blow. |
McCain has been pretty effective in keeping Obama on the defensive. |
Tagore: Has anyone ever used the word “cockamamie” in a Presidential debate before? Probably not. But it’s been used to describe Joe Biden and his ideas since his first campaign for the presidency in the late 1980s. |
Naomi–I also deleted one such comment. I do think he has a comb-over, though. |
“Obama, who has never traveled south of our border…” I wonder what McCain’s understanding of “south” is? |
McCain’s head is going to explode. |
McCain was lying about Obama not traveling south of our border. |
McCain keeps leaning back and sitting up straight in his chair when he’s not answering questions. That makes his neck look think and his head look big. He needs to keep leaning forward when he’s not answering questions, so that he looks the same whether he’s answering questions or not. |
I was going to make a little joke about McCain’s age and his consequent access to antiquated vocabulary, but it’s a low blow. Too late. LOL! |
McCain is lying about Obama wanting to meet with Chavez. |
Bob Shieffer is no joke. |
ESO: comb-over–yes. But I secretly think that he’s still a rather handsome man. They both are, as a matter of fact. I think McCain kind of looks like Steve Martin. ANyone else? |
McCain scored big on free trade. Too bad it’s not a major voting issue. |
DKL: You’re right! Too bad he won’t have another debate to utilize your recommendation… |
Joe the Plumber again??? |
“we should have physical fitness and nutrition programs in schools…” Makes me wonder when the last time he set foot in a school is? |
That shocked look on McCain’s face is pure comedy. |
McCain is slinging a bunch of BS, but it’s keeping Obama on defense. Obama hasn’t thrown nearly as many punches. |
Joe the Plumber: http://www.joelaratheplumber.com/ http://www.joetheplumberseattle.com/ http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGUxY2JjOThjOWJjZGRjN2JlNzQ3MmUwNGE3M2ZhMGQ= |
I predict a new comic book with Joe the Plumber as a super hero by inauguration day. Oh, and a made-for–TV movie. |
This is a fairly bizarre conceit for a debate…talking to this poor plumber we all saw on the news. “Joe: you’re rich. Congratulations.” |
Okay, just got back from being a fan at my first ever professional hockey game, and the Rangers lost. McCain was congratulating Joe for being rich. Who is Joe? That tight little smile on McCain’s face creeps me out. |
I am surprised Roe Vs Wade has come up |
Is McCain wearing a bracelet? |
danithew!!! Welcome!!! Joe the Plumber, along with Bob the moderator, is the hero of the debate. Evidently Obama talked to him at a rally a few days ago, and he’s become Everyman. |
People don’t know this, but Bork was pro-choice back when he was nominated for the supreme court. There are plenty of pro-choice judges who believe that Roe v. Wade is bad law. The questions of whether abortion should be legal and whether it should be a constitutional right are logically independent. |
Uh oh. Now Lily has entered the scene. |
I want to play poker with McCain |
McCain needs to stop lying. |
Looks like Obama is in line with the CHI… ;) |
It’s the smiles, huh ESO? Or maybe the tie? |
The eyebrows |
Sexuality is sacred? YUCK! I prefer Woody Allen’s line: My therapist asked me if I felt that sex is dirty. I said, well sure, if you’re doing it right. |
Again – Shieffer is the man. |
OBama says that there’s never been a nation that’s seen its economy decline while maintaining military supremacy. You’ve got to be kidding me. What about the US in WWII? |
I want to know why CNN worships uncommitted people from Ohio. Hey everyone, I found this guy living in a closet in Toledo! Let’s all gather round to hear what he thinks! |
McCain’s never been to New York. Obviously. |
REALLY New Orleans and New York are beacons for education? |
NCLB: find me a teacher who thinks it is a good law. I have never met one. |
ESO: true. Does Ted Kennedy still support it? I’ve never fully understood the Bush + Kennedy concordance on NCLB… Do the Republicans or the Democrats like it more? I’ve never fully understood the politics of that bill. |
DC school system? Wow, John hasn’t been there in a while either. |
America has been testing behind other industrialized nations for several decades — still no disaster. This is simply an artifact of how we administer the tests in the US. In other countries, they administer them by age. In the US, we administer them by grade. Then we compare the US results of based on maximum age in a standard grade-level with the age groups in other countries. So that, for example, 17 year olds in grade 12 get grouped in with the 18 year olds in grade 12, and then compared to 18 year olds in Germany. Between the ages of 12 and 20, age correlates quite highly with performance. |
McCain is using the “I’m frankly surprised” bitchmove a lot. It’s getting old (well, ‘old’ is a relative term). |
Does Joe have an autistic child? |
Actually, DC has some great charter schools. There’s no way we would have lived in the District if it hadn’t been for the charter school options. |
CJ Douglass: Again – Shieffer is the man. No. Shieffer is a man. For the purposes of this debate, Joe the Plumber is the man. Shieffer will have to content himself with “Adjutant to the Man.” |
…and when he laughs to himself, it’s just disconcerting. I wonder if he knows that. |
I just went to http://www.mydebates.org, and I was shut out!!!! I love being one of the masses… |
My wife is saying that the child is not autistic, but has Downs Syndrome. The child is an infant – you can’t diagnose autism when the child is an infant(?). I think that’s what she is saying … |
McCain established the 9/11 Commission? Was that part of his Blackberry creation policy? |
Oh good, it’s over. |
McCain shook his hand! |
How does Palin know about every single “special need” because she has an infant with down syndrome? McCain saying she knows more than most people he knows is sad. |
THe wives!!! Opposite colors! Do you think this was planned? |
McCain is kicking serious butt tonight. where was this guy in the last two debates? Too little too late, but it’s nice to see him go down fighting… |
Tom Brokaw just declared Joe the Plumber the winner of the debate. |
Phillies: 5 sometime in the 7th. |
I’m swearing off politics, news programs, and newspapers for the next four years and 20 days. What a discouraging 90 minutes that was. |
Okay, folks, I’m off to glut myself on commentary. Thanks for joining us!!! Happy October to all, and to all a good night. I hope investors in Japan are doing okay… |
just your first? and your team lost? sorry. but did you have fun? it’s an NHL game, of course you had fun! |
Not as exciting as everyone thought it would be (although better than the last two.) I really don’t get all these undecided voters. There are two choices and neither one resembles the other – It’s not like it’s a choice between Sprite or 7-Up. |
mfranti, hockey _is_ fun … about two minutes into the game, a fight broke out. It kind of amazes me how hockey players are allowed to really go after each other with their fists, and they just get penalized for a period of minutes and go right back to playing. |
enforcement. very necessary. |
#147 Matt, From an undecided voter- One has the temperament of a good President, but his plan for America is ridiculous. The other is cranky and weird, but his plan for America is less ridiculous. |
#29: Sorry, it’s dish night for me. |
nsm 150 that’s an answer i respect! ;) |
“How does Palin know about every single “special need†because she has an infant with down syndrome?” She’s everywhere and everyone. I’m pretty sure Sarah Palin made my Papa Murphy Supreme pizza this evening. It was a dang good pizza. They say the Republicans are all about torture … well, if this is Sarah’s brand of torture, chain me to the wall! ~ |
I don’t get the autism stuff, does McCain think Palin’s child has autism, or does he think autism and Down Syndrome are the same thing? Or does someone with a child that has Down Syndrome become an expert in all types of Special Needs? It was all wacky. It was close, but Obama won and McCain didn’t get any kind of home run that he needed. |
as usual, Dick Morris was among the few that got the analysis right. I thought David Gergen might have caught this, but he is long since in the tank (hard to believe he sits at the non-partisan table @ CNN). even if McCain “lost” the debate tonight — not that I believe any of these instapolls let alone the Fox Noise text-in-the-winner nonsense — he shifted the debate a bit. what he did (and this is not stealing directly from Morris) is to *simplify*, arguably oversimplify, the debate over who can handle the economy to two questions: 1. In an economic crisis, should we raise taxes at all? (On anyone? On companies that provide jobs?) 2. In an economic crisis, should we raise spending? (Or freeze it…at least for now?) Those are two questions he can keep asking from now until November 4th. And the answers don’t look good for Obama, or, as Romney put it, the “Gang of Three” (Obama, Reid, and Pelosi). Moreover, anthropomophizing this around Joe the Plumber was an Atwaterian stroke of genius. Without the nastiness. More importantly, if he can frame the race around these two questions, he might be able to put aside his fumbling bailout response two weeks ago as well as the somewhat unearned guilt-by-association re: the housing crisis. I still don’t think he can win given the seismic economic shift and the ensuing guilt by association, but this at least sets up a strong last three weeks. |
DKL #45, “Almost all of them earn way, way more than $250K, though Obama made the unbelievably ignorant assertion in the last debate that most small businesses aren’t earning more than $250K. Thus, you’re increasing taxes on most small businesses, which decreases their ability to employ.” Proves how little you know about the real world. Most ‘small businesses’ do make less that $250K profit, I don’t know where you got your stats from but they are wrong. And paying tax on profits has absolutely no bearing on whether one hires more staff or not. That’s an old republican myth that they keep repeating to get elected. One hires according to staffing needs, how much value new people can add to the business and whether or not extra staff will increase gross earnings. Taxing profits at 35%, 40% or 25% makes no difference at all on the number of new staff hired. A recession does though, the one Bush Jnr is leaving behind certainly will affect job creation, and letting corporations move to Ireland does, especially to share holders -the republican ones off course! |
#155, “2. In an economic crisis, should we raise spending? (Or freeze it…at least for now?)” Every economy in world that entered a recession only got out by either government spending on job creation programs, like road construction, and/or tax cut to the majority, which is always the middle class and working class. And this is much more than a ‘crisis’, it could end up as another depression. |
” Shieffer is the man.” Those of you who like Shieffer, you MUST read how he was involved the day JFK was killed. He IS THE MAN!! |
credit also to CNN’s John King, who noted that 1. should we raise taxes? are questions that speak not just to conservatives, but also to independents nervous about the Obama/Pelosi/Reid hydra. I have to admit this is one of those nights I wish that Romney had won the nomination. |
Charlie, Depending on where you draw the line on what a “small business” is, you’re right that _most_ small businesses make less than $250K profit. An average McDonald’s, for instance, does somewhere under $2 mil in sales per year, and will show a profit margin of about 7% – that is somewhere around $140,000 a year in profit. An average Subway will do about 20-25% of that business, and depending on many factors may have a narrower margin … you might be feeling lucky to squeeze $20-30K a year out of an average Subway. I’m only talking about the restaurant industry, where my personal experience lies. I understand that food is a high overhead, low margin business, and that other business models can produce more comfortable margins. But even if you were running business at a 20% margin, you’d need to be doing $1.25 mil in sales and very few small businesses are going to be doing that. Certainly not Joe Plumber’s local routes. Your statement about taxes not impacting hiring is a little confusing, though. It is true that you hire according to need, and hope that you have a robust enough staff to maintain or grow sales. However, in many or most cases a small business owner will need everything he can scrape out to maintain his livelihood. So that profit is, for all intents and purposes, a part of his payroll cost (though taxed differently). Something putting a squeeze on his profits can’t be distinguished from something putting a squeeze on his operations. When something puts a squeeze on – and this is infinitely more true when he is unable to secure credit, the situation we’re in now – something will have to give. And that something is almost always payroll, because it is the cost that you’re most able to control – particularly in an emergency. Raising taxes on any business will have a negative impact on the total amount being spent on payroll. That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done. But the idea that one maintains staff always at the level you even reasonably need isn’t reality – certainly not for many small business owners. ~ |
DKL said it best last debate: Bob Dole 2.0 (I voted for Bob Dole 1.0) |
Charlie: Proves how little you know about the real world. Most ’small businesses’ do make less that $250K profit, I don’t know where you got your stats from but they are wrong. Sorry, Charlie. I’ve built and scaled small business before — multiple times. This is one area where I’ve got real-world experience in spades. Any small business of an appreciable size makes more than $250k. I’m not talking about fast food joints, but small businesses with big payrolls and employees who earn six figures — the kind that are the backbone of innovation and good employment. So I’ll tell you what: You go run a business of any appreciable size with skilled employees who earn real money, and then come back and we’ll talk about what you know about the real world. Charlie: And paying tax on profits has absolutely no bearing on whether one hires more staff or not. That’s an old republican myth that they keep repeating to get elected. One hires according to staffing needs, how much value new people can add to the business and whether or not extra staff will increase gross earnings. Let’s say you’ve got 25 employees in a major US metro area. You will probably have an annual payroll between $2M and $2.5M. This puts your revenue between $5M and $6.25M. At a 10% EBITDA (which is fine, but not very good) you’ll have between $500K – $625K in profit before taxes. At this point, you and your partner are probably managing everything directly, and in order to continue to scale you have to hire at least one high level manager who can handle operations, technology, customer service, or sales, so that at least one of these is taken off of your plate and your partner’s plate, allowing you to continue to focus on the areas in which you make a key contribution to the business. How many of these high-level types do you hire? Do you risk going with a young and aggressive person on the cheap? or do you hire a more seasoned candidate for more? It depends on how much you pay in taxes, and if you go with the young and cheap person because taxes prohibit you from affording the more seasoned one, then presto! you’ve replaced a high-paying job with a low-paying job. Furthermore, you have to hire for support people for accounting/bookkeeping, HR, and admin as your business becomes too large to continue to outsource these functions. How many of these do you hire? At what level of competence do you hire them? Since these turn out to be cost centers, it’s easy enough to scrimp on them, and with higher taxes, a business will, of necessity, hire fewer for less money. Also, you need to have capacity to do work before you can sell it, and a very short hiring cycle is 6 weeks. You match this against a sales cycle that has been discounted for risk, and just to be conservative, you overestimate your production capacity because dedicated employees of a small business will work nights and weekends. But lets say that your business is growing. If you want to compete with larger firms that have better capacity, then you can’t make customers wait while you hire for their job. Thus, at some point you’ve got to hire people ahead of some big potential sales, risking that they’ll be sitting around doing nothing for a while. The amount of cash on hand impacts your ability to hire at the right point on the growth curve and weather this risk, which, in turn, impacts how fast you grow and how many people you hire. Taxes reduce this amount, thereby slowing growth and slowing hiring. You could go with contractors, which has 2 advantages. First, you don’t have to show contractor expenses on cashflow estimates beyond a 12 month time horizon. Second, you can ditch them whenever. But the downside is that they are, on average, 2 times as expensive as hiring full time employees. If your business is cyclical, you can save a bundle. But if you’re business is growing, then you’ll probably be keeping them, and you’ll be wasting a lot of money. Furthermore, if you have trade secrets, or if you deal in confidential information, then you have a strong disincentive to use contract labor. Then there are equipment expenditures. A small business buys or leases computers, desks, chairs, printers, cubicles, staplers, pads of paper, monitors; sometimes servers, automobiles. Some of these expenses can be capitalized, others can’t (as can labor that is devoted to creating — but not maintaining — product). But even with capitalization, you’ve got to pay for it somewhere. It’s a zero-sum game, the more you pay in taxes, the more you scrimp, the less you buy, the less revenue for other businesses. And how about benefits? Many small business owners take pride in the benefits that they provide. Increasing taxes on small corporation directly impacts their ability to help employees to fund their benefits packages. Lastly, one business strategy for small businesses is to keep the run-rate low by paying people less in salary and more in bonuses and profit sharing. So that, for example, a business can put some percentage of an individual’s salary into their 401K account as a bonus that doesn’t get hit by payroll taxes. Taxes have a direct impact on this. In short, your statement is idiotic. Running a small business successfully means spending less than you earn, which means scrimping strategically to make things work for the money you have. Increasing taxes damages small businesses by reducing the pool of available cash. This impacts purchases and leases, it impacts benefits, and it impacts hiring. Charlie: Taxing profits at 35%, 40% or 25% makes no difference at all on the number of new staff hired. Nice try. Don’t lecture me on the economics of small business. This is all just off the top of my head. Give me more time, and I could probably write a book about how taxes impact small business growth. BTW, neither Obama nor McCain know any of this. They have no experience in the private sector. They’ve never actually worked the way that Americans work who are impacted by economic turmoil. You know who does know it, even if she’s not up on all the business vocabulary? Sarah Palin. She and her husband actually do run a business that makes money. But supposedly she’s not interested in the world around her — it’s just idiots like Obama and McCain who are. |
Interesting: I just looked up what the definition of “small business” is – and according to wiki it’s anything less than 100 employees, in the U.S. This vastly changes the way I hear political statements regarding small business. The statements are designed, I think, to make you think of you, or maybe your dad, starting up his little ole business. The little guy with a dream. I’ve worked for a couple of companies that qualify as small businesses, it turns out. In each case they were run by … multiple wealthy men, to say the least. Doesn’t change the economics, but it does change the way I hear those statements. ~ |
TP – I think both parties manipulate the idea of what a small business is – to your point. But in the case of Joe the plumber, Obama’s right – he’s not making more than a 1/4 mill. Plumbers make bank – but not that much. Besides, Joe is part of a union anyway – McCain’s got no shot at his vote. |
Just read the detailed story about Joe…makes more sense now. |
What appalls me most is liberals’ willingness to talk about how great it is to tax other people’s money — like your knee-jerk presupposition, CJ Douglass, that you know more about what Joe should be doing with his money and its taxes than he does. Pretty awful stuff. |
DKL, What a shame. At least I’ve tried to open your eyes a bit, but it hasn’t worked. Again “Increasing taxes damages small businesses by reducing the pool of available cash. This impacts purchases and leases” Really? Capital costs aren’t in ‘taxable income’ or in taxable profits or corporate income taxes (which the democrats are trying to increase for well of businesses, not the corner shop or your mechanic or Joe that plumber). And “And how about benefits? Many small business owners take pride in the benefits that they provide. Increasing taxes on small corporation directly impacts their ability to help employees to fund their benefits packages” Again, what I spend on employee benefits isn’t considered a part of any profits. Again, first the business spends on benefits and what is left over, as profits, are taxed. And note that those profits go to shareholders. What you’re complaining about in reality is taxing dividends, that income you get for not actually doing anything just investing. You should actually be complaining that ‘profit taxes’ lower the amount of retained earnings which are almost always invested in the business. So you’re businesses here -all mid size business- will invest about 3% less of its profits in mostly growth directed expenditure. (See, I’m helping you out here by making your argument for you!) We can agree though that republicans want to lower the taxes mid size businesses pay but then the republican’s probably own most of those shares, and democrats will tax some mid size businesses more -their profits- which will decrease dividends by what, 3% or 5%? and fund some weird government programs. But then again America seems to need more programs now that its in the drains -economically speaking- and Pt Bush has being doing this anyway since almost day one. But then Bush isn’t republican anymore? only McCain is? nice. Or maybe its just my idiotic statement? Honestly dude, you should be mormon at all speaking like that. Unfortunately you DKL continue to propagate the ideology which has created a working poor class since Reagan and now will inevitably push the middle class downwards closer towards those working poor. But this is what you want, and to make the wealthy richer off course. Now there’s a financial meltdown, but just wait until there’s a currency meltdown caused by all those excess dollars the US has been printing up since Reagan -maybe then even die hard republicans like you will also feel betrayed, just like papa bear on fox feels now. Oh, but he’s a libertarian right? |
“Honestly dude, you should be mormon at all speaking like that.” That should be ‘shouldn’t be a mormon at all’ … |
Sorry again, Charlie. Corporate profits aren’t just something that the government can take away without impacting the small business. The question of whether payroll, capital expenditures, or benefits are considered profits have nothing to do with this. Let’s say you have $1M in profits (just because it’s an easy number), of which the government takes 25% of it ($250K. The remaining $750K constitutes your business’s buffer against bad times. If the government ups this to 30%, then you’re going to spend your money differently, so that you still have roughly $750K left over. This means spending less on the items I enumerate. This is simple math, especially in a period like the one we’re in now with the economy likely contracting. Charlie: What you’re complaining about in reality is taxing dividends, that income you get for not actually doing anything just investing. This has nothing at all to do with investment dividends. Such dividends are only relevant to large businesses. Indeed, the very purpose of s-corps and LLCs is to eliminate the tax disadvantages of c-corp dividends for small, closely held companies. Profits retained by an s-corp or LLC are taxed as income to the owners. That’s why income taxes impact small business. It works like this: If the company makes and retains $1M in profit, and you have 2 partners, then these two partners will have $500K added to their personal income tax returns, even though the partners will not actually receive this money. The company will then make a “distribution” (essentially a bonus) for the amount of taxes that each partner must pay for the additional $500K of income. This distribution is the taxes that the s-corp or LLC pays. And, just to clarify, owners of s-corps and LLC’s aren’t generally going to take dividends. They’re going to take distributions. The truth is, you know little about how small businesses work. You’re just embarrassing yourself by trying to pretend to be an expert here. (No surprise, that.) In light of this, your willingness to pontificate about the needs of small business is frightening. |
#166: you know more about what Joe should be doing with his money and its taxes than he does. Pretty awful stuff. |
you know more about what Joe should be doing with his money and its taxes than he does. Pretty awful stuff. That should be in quotes.(“DKL”) |
“then these two partners will have $500K added to their personal income tax returns, “…as it should be! “even though the partners will not actually receive this money”, then they are bigger idiots than you are! As I said, I tried but of course you know it all here, right? I just wish I could see your face when your economy disintegrates under the weight of all that extra money printed up by your republican friends, done so they could deliver those upper class tax cuts. I wonder what dumb excuse you will come up with then? Probably blame the poor again! |
Pretty awful stuff. DKL, Republicans love to deride government intervention – until its their farm in need of subsidies or their home in need of a bail out. They love to cry about big brother, until there’s some wiretapping to be done or some homes that need to be illegally raided. They love to look down at “special needs” until they’re the ones with an infant with down syndrome. They love to moan about welfare benefits until they’re the ones without a job. You wouldn’t believe the number of devout conservatives I know who’ve taken full advantage of government programs so they can pop out another baby while in law school. Pretty awful stuff. |
CJ,
Neither Obama (Dems) nor McCain (GOP) can pay for what they propose. Obama, less so. It’s well-documented by numerous 3rd-party studies. Pretty Awful Stuff |
nas, The current slew of Republicans in office (including Bush and McCain) make Pat Buchanan look like a radical. And yet, McCain and co. keep spittin out the same “keep government out of our lives” BS – when in fact, that’s all it is – BS. They don’t really mean it. Its become the hollow war cry of the conservatism of yesterday. At the end of the day, our society is much closer to a socialist model that it was 8 years ago. Republicans played a big role in that. |
Charlie: “even though the partners will not actually receive this moneyâ€, then they are bigger idiots than you are! So I demonstrate that you don’t know how small-business taxes work by describing how they actually work, and your response is that the way they work is idiotic? By hypothesis, retained profits are retained and not distributed. Companies do retain profits for a variety of reasons, but usually to have cash on hand and to meet the terms of creditors or high-ticket clients, who don’t like to do business with small companies without it. You may think this is idiotic. Next time you run a small business, you can feel free to never retain a cent of profits. Charlie: As I said, I tried but of course you know it all here, right? I know it must be frustrating to try to recite what you’ve read somewhere only to run into someone who’s able to demonstrate from real-world experience that it’s wrong. But it’s not quite fair of you to assert that I think I know everything, because I don’t. I just think that I know more than you. |
CJ, Thats good stuff, but it is beside the point. Democrats do not plan on being able to pay for what they spend. Both candidates will increase deficits. |
#177: They did last time, that’s the Budget was in surplus. |
Bob, I think that’s a bit revisionist. My take is that Bill Clinton got elected in 1992, had the worst 1st two years of any president in recent memory and failed to make any of the budget goals that he promised on the campaign trail. He lost by historic amounts in the mid-terms such that the Republicans gained both houses, and the newly elected Republican majority balanced the budget. Since then, the Republicans lost their budget-ethics and decided to argue with the Democrats over where to spend money instead of whether to spend it, and the budget went updside-down again. I’m not saying that electing Republicans to congress at this point will impact the deficit the way that it did in 1994, but I do think that it’s quite reasonable to be skeptical about a decrease in deficit spending. Personally, believe that it’s difficult to seriously argue that the deficit will decrease under any plausible election scenario. The budget is not a voting issue, and it hasn’t been for a long time. Since the 1970s, the deficit only goes down when the budget has been a voting issue for a long time. Without that, pork trumps fiscal responsibility every time. Witness the fact that the Democrats are going to gain in both houses of Congress (in all likelihood, very dramatically) in spite of the historically low popularity of the Democrat-majority. |
#179: If it is so easy, why didn’t Bush 1 or Bush 2 do it. But I agree, a lot of this is “Once Upon a Time” stuff |
My point is that it’s not easy at all. Bush 1 did get the deficit down, even if he didn’t balance the budget (that’s why he broke the “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge), but the budget had been an election issue for a long time at that point. |
DKL #176 My dear friend DKL: Now you’re implying that all profits are retained profits! Sure! Going from idiotic to the ridiculous. What you are missing here is that the 5% odd extra tax under Obama or the 8% odd gain under McCain are negligible amounts for any small business and simply will not affect the employment market at all. A recession will affect the employment market as will a depression! And if two partners are make $1m a year -they are doing OK. A 60% increase would make a difference, not 3% or 5%. Plus Obama said clearly that if there is a recession he would put off the tax increases because of the recession. But you don’t believe that off course, I know. But under McCains plan, all his tax cuts, your deficit increases by some $4.5 trillion. Under Obama it increases by $3 trillion (over 10 years). That’s where your problem is because one day, either you or your kids will have to pay that debt one way or another. this GOP theory that you can lower taxes, replace revenues with debt will only turn you into a Bolivia (but wall st is already there). Do you think that they can actually cut spending when they haven’t done so during the ‘good’ years? or will they cut spending during a recession? really! You seem to be ok with making the US a new Bolivia! |
Charlie: Now you’re implying that all profits are retained profits I imply this nowhere. You’re simply trying to bluff your way through a discussion on a topic that you really know nothing about at all. Retained profits are what count for lines of credit and big accounts that want a business to have cash on hand. A lender won’t look at a business with zero retained profits and partners making $1M each, and say, “I’ll let them have $600K revolving credit line to float their business during cash-poor months.” Lenders and large clients who demand audits are going to be suspicious of any business with more than around 40% of revenue going to payroll. When they see this, they’ll come back and say, “Cut your payroll and then we’ll talk.” Furthermore, I’ve run small businesses with 10s of millions of dollars in revenue. Owners do pretty well, but they’re lucky to pocket $250 per year, yet their business allows them to pay millions in payroll to its employees. Small business owners only really make it big is when they sell their business or go public. Then, they take that money and start from scratch, trying to build another business, only faster. Small business owners aren’t Paris Hilton. This discussion with you is getting pretty silly. You’ve gone from ignorant claim to ignorant claim, as I expose the poverty of each one. You’re not going to win this argument, because your statement is demonstrably wrong. Moreover, you’ve demonstrated a complete lack of hands-on understanding of how small businesses run. Charlie: What you are missing here is that the 5% odd extra tax under Obama or the 8% odd gain under McCain are negligible amounts for any small business and simply will not affect the employment market at all. Actually, if you’d run a small business before, you’d know that every dollar can count. Using your logic, you could raise taxes on small businesses 1% per year indefinitely with impunity. Taxes on small businesses are already too high. Furthermore, if I’m running a business, it’s not your place to say whether any amount forcibly taken from its income is negligible. Charlie: But under McCains plan, all his tax cuts, your deficit increases by some $4.5 trillion. Are you just making this stuff up? Or are you just blindly repeating the stuff that other people make up? McCain’s plan includes a spending freeze. If you freeze government spending, then tax revenue will grow at roughly the same rate as the economy grows, and the deficit will decrease as soon as we’re out of recession. |
“If you freeze government spending, then tax revenue will grow at roughly the same rate as the economy grows” VOODOO economics, as the republican president bush (daddy) preached. But history teaches us that both Reagan and Bush daddy/Bush jnr tried this and the growth in tax revenues never compensated for the original drop in receipts due to the tax cuts -hence that debt. The reason is because at least half if not more of the those tax cuts to the rich ended up in real estate or Wall st which today are going bust. “1% per year indefinitely” – really? up to 100$!! right!! “Taxes on small businesses are already too high”, Sure, for restaurants, mechanics, painters etc. Not for those making more than a quarter of a million profits. This is the point you keep missing but I doubt most independents do, which is why Obama is ahead even though the man has a thin resume, a strange name and he’s black. -The numbers come from the Tax Policy Center, Link here. “without substantial cuts in government spending, both plans would sharply increase the national debt. Including interest costs, Obama’s tax plan would boost the debt by $3.5 trillion by 2018. McCain’s plan would increase the debt by $5 trillion on top of the $2.3 trillion increase that the Congressional Budget Office forecasts for the next decade (see Summary Deficit Table).” But they do condition this with that “without…cuts..” and I was slightly off going on memory only in 182 so I’ll let you pass on this one and since Johnny McCain will probably cut some spending (in a recession) since he doesn’t really understand economics, right? They also claim that: “McCain would lift after-tax incomes an average of about 3 percent, or $1,400 annually, for middle-income taxpayers by 2012. But, in sharp contrast to Obama, he would cut taxes for those in the top 1% by more than $125,000, raising their after-tax income an average 9.5 percent.” You middle class? if you are you are voting to pay more taxes under McCain. What even they neglect, because they just don’t cover this area, is the changing influence of the US dollar. Many now trade in euro’s only so all those extra printed bills will some come home to hatch, something you haven’t commented on yet. I suspect its because you don’t know what that’s about!!! |
That link didn’t come out right, its: |
Charlie, you’ve now completely moved on from attempting to describe how small businesses work, and you’ve introduced a whole series of altogether unrelated arguments based on my response to you statement about McCain freezing government spending. I take this as a concession that you’ve lost the argument on small businesses. Before we moved on to these new topics, I wanted to address this issue. At some point, you’ll likely find a topic in which your position is actually arguable, and then you’ll say, “Ah-ha! I was right all along.” But it’s important to keep an actually tally of how many topics you’ve expressed inarguably wrong opinions about. Charlie: the growth in tax revenues never compensated for the original drop in receipts due to the tax cuts Actually, Federal tax revenue grew 50% during Reagan’s presidency. And though he raised taxes twice after his initial cuts, tax rates remained substantially lower during his administration than during Carter’s administration. Charlie: [using your logic, you could raise taxes] “1% per year indefinitely†– really? up to 100$!! right!! It’s your logic, not mine. If taxes are 99%, then the difference between 99% and 100% is negligible, and that makes the tax-hike OK. Charlie: But they do condition this with that “without… cuts..†Government tax receipts grow when the economy expands — nobody disputes that, because it’s simple math. The dispute over supply-side economics is whether the tax-lowering stimulating effect offsets the net present value of the lost revenue. According to Laffer, it does when marginal rates are decreased, but not when rates are decreased without respect to the differences between marginal tax rates. Charlie: You middle class? if you are you are voting to pay more taxes under McCain. That’s the argument that G. H. W. Bush tried to make against Clinton in 1992. Anyway, since most middle-class families don’t even pay taxes, you can’t argue that they’re taxed too much. Furthermore, Obama’s tax scheme is basically redistributive — he gives everyone under a certain income bracket gets money taxes, whether they have taxes to which they can apply it or not. Charlie: something you haven’t commented on yet. I suspect its because you don’t know what that’s about!!! Don’t even go there. I helped write a book on currency exchange. You really have no idea who you’re dealing with, do you? I suppose that this argument is going to go on and on, as you drop topic after topic as each of your successive argument proves inadequate, and you set your sites on tangential topics in a futile hope of breaking free from this cycle of defeat. |
“and you set your sites on tangential topics in a futile hope of breaking free from this cycle of defeat” Rubbish! my friend! Its simply impossible to open your eyes here, to get you pass your fanatical republican views. That’s what is happening here, not just changing the subject. See after this last comment of yours you show that you just don’t consider history’s lessons at all. You ought to go back and take another look at what happened under Reagan and the Bushes with this voodoo thinking of lowering taxes and waiting for more to come back -it was never enough, even under this last Bush who included cheque’s in the mail to get out of a downturn! “Don’t even go there. I helped write a book on currency exchange” Obviously a piece of right wing blinded piece of propaganda as valuable to students as Pastor Deacon Fred Smith’s preaching!!! Like I said before, I only wish I could see your face as the US economy implodes due to republican -starting with Reagan- economic voodooism and all that excess money they printed up. Pity Obama may actually try to stop it happening. Oh, and about small business, point was that for the guy making 250K or more, a 3% increase is nothing. You then changed that to a perpetual increase of 1% -which no one has ever claimed, and 100% retained profits. But we would only go back to what it is was under Clinton when more than enough jobs were being created, more than today under Bush jnr voodooism. And you said nothing now about the TPC, why? they’re not republican enough??? If you’ve forgotten they said this: “Obama’s tax plan would boost the debt by $3.5 trillion by 2018. McCain’s plan would increase the debt by $5 trillion on top of the $2.3 trillion increase that the Congressional Budget Office forecasts for the next decade” And: ““McCain would lift after-tax incomes an average of about 3 percent, or $1,400 annually, for middle-income taxpayers by 2012. But, in sharp contrast to Obama, he would cut taxes for those in the top 1% by more than $125,000, raising their after-tax income an average 9.5 percent.†OH, that’s right you claim that middle-income taxpayers do pay any tax and won’t pay any by 2012? voodoo, voodoo, voodooism…………………… |
Charlie: Obviously a piece of right wing blinded piece of propaganda as valuable to students as Pastor Deacon Fred Smith’s preaching!!! The book was a financial analysis of cross-currency rates of the 5 major currencies since the currency trading commenced in 1972. It had nothing to do with politics. Charlie: Oh, and about small business, point was that for the guy making 250K or more, a 3% increase is nothing. You then changed that to a perpetual increase of 1% . This isn’t changing the subject. It’s offering an a fortiori argument. If 3% is negligible, then 1% is a fortiori negligible — every year. The fact that it leads to 100% taxation constitutes a reductio of your position that it’s OK to raise taxes 3% because that’s negligible. You can’t claim that I’m changing the subject by offering a formally valid proof that you are mistaken. You’ve failed to demonstrate a serious grasp on the issues that you’ve brought up regarding small businesses and taxation (as my arguments demonstrate). Furthermore, you lack a basic grasp of how to craft, interpret, and respond to reasonable arguments (again, as my arguments demonstrate). Look, I’m egalitarian enough to engage someone like you to a point. Any more, it makes as much sense to argue with you about these topics as it does to argue with my 7 year-old over whether she should clean her room. |
fortiori…….reductio…… Sure…. You still haven’t addressed the TPC’s analysis at all, after asking me: “Are you just making this stuff up? Or are you just blindly repeating the stuff that other people make up?” Obviously when a non-partisan group proves you incorrect you chose to ignore them. And remember that the TPC is impartial but… oh that’s right…they are also as bright as your 7 year old? since they don’t agree with you. Or they ‘failed to demonstrate a serious grasp on the issues’ since they don’t agree with you and your right wing fanaticism…. You see, ‘my friend’, one can make an argument for almost anything, for example one could make a ‘reasonable’ argument that children’s clothing shouldn’t be taxed since the children don’t work, or that feminine sanitary products shouldn’t be taxed based of anti-discrimination since only women buy then and so on, but that doesn’t mean that those arguments are correct. Neither are yours!!!! And in that lies the whole problem with the republican right wing religious nuts in the good old US of A; they still can’t see that Reagan’s 50% increase in tax revenue didn’t cover what was lost by the tax cuts….and so they created debt…which has gone up and up …and continues to go up…until the day of final judgment when all those strange prophesies which Brigham Young et al made up will actually come true….and the USA will be in deep trouble…. buried in a sea of debt stained worthless dollar bills, because of the Grand Old Party (mostly) tax cuts to the richest people and the blinded Mormons like you who supported them. Bye. enough is enough! your are right in that at least. But, and a 3% ONE OFF increase to 39% is still nothing for small business making over 250K a year; you are simply wrong in your arguments here; there maybe not be any hope in you seeing this but most voters do seem to see it. |
Bye. |