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no global warmÂing has occurred since 1998 (more than a decade) I’ve been arguÂing for more than a decade… Looks like I’ll have to eat my hat: all along I thought your arguments were just so much hot air; turns out they were a fresh breeze! |
Since I am rather agnostic on global warming, I can’t see the same evidence in these purloined emails for a massive international conspiracy that you do. A bunch of academic weenies, yes; criminals, I don’t think so. What is really of interest to me is why people believe what they do. Who stands to gain, who stands to lose. Personally, even if the impact of man on global warming is minimal, I kind of like the idea of treating our world more like the Garden of Eden and less like a Tijuana parking lot. |
woohoo, let’s burn the world. After all, it has been prophesied that the end will be in fire. Screw the world. Let’s just burn everything. |
A good link into what is going on now is at: http://volokh.com/2009/11/25/more-monbiot-on-cru-e-mail-leak/ |
Daniel, don’t drop into stereotype, too many people think already that the Democrats just want to burn everyone else’s world down. |
Where do you get that stereotype from Stephen? It’s not liberals and Democrats that want to waste away the world’s limited resources in order to make more money. I’m making a snarky comment. Drill Baby Drill! |
btw, I’m perfectly fine with the earth cooling instead of heating. I hate hot weather. |
It’s not libÂerÂals and DemocÂrats that want to waste away the world’s limÂited resources in order to make more money. Are you sure? Could have sworn it was the Democrats who had that M.O. Especially George Bush. He was a spend and spend Democrat, wasn’t he? Huge unfunded social programs (drug benefits), federal expansion and programs, including an LBJ style foreign war. Unlike that budget balancing Republican Bill Clinton. I could be confused. I think I’ll go back to bed. |
yeah, I think you need to go back to bed. :) Cuz, see in actual reality, Democrats balance budgets while Republicans pretend to while spending worse than a drunken sailor swears. |
The most amazing thing is that you didn’t hurt yourself patting your own back so vigorously. |
Thanks for passing this along. It is basically what I expected. |
I wouldn’t put too much faith in this post. There are lots of scientific research which shows that the world’s climate is indeed warming up. Any experienced scuba diver can testify to that with how the kelp has changed over time. This seems like a hit piece on liberal minded thinkers. BTW, the replies to this post further my point since none of them are really serious about the subject. |
Massive international conspiracy, probably not. A few top climatologists in key institutions who may have committed the sins of cargo cult science, as the late Richard Feynman called it, seems much more likely. A rather larger lot of politicians, or wannabe politicians, buying into a theory that helps increase their political power, very probably. An army of scientifically illiterate media pundits repeating and amplifying the claims of the climatologists and the politicians, certainly. |
A common theme expressed in defense of those involved in “Climategate” is that they don’t show a “massive international conspiracy” (as per #2 John above). What this overlooks is that (a) there are only a few large historical temperature data sets, (b) most of AGW research depends one way or another upon those sets, and (c) these people at the CRU involved in Climategate were responsible for one such critical data set. When asked to produce the original unprocessed data, Phil Jones finally acknowledged that they no longer had the unprocessed data — that they had discarded it due to “data storage limitations”, and that all they had left was their heavily processed version. Yet much of the AGW research conducted outside of CRU relies upon the CRU’s “processed” historical data and thus are tainted to the extent that the CRU was doing funny stuff to the data — and it’s becoming clear that they were doing so. There are different but related problems with the Yamal dendrochronology (using tree rings to plot historical temperatures) put forth by Briffa; a very small subset of trees are used, most of which show a late 20th century temperature rise, while the rest of the sampled trees show no such trend. Again, many AGW papers rely upon the Briffa Yamal data and so are all tainted by the apparent deliberate selection of confirming trees. The real scientific sin, though, was the concerted efforts by Jones et alis to block publication of any dissenting or conflicting research papers. That’s not science, period. I have long been an AGW skeptic because of my professional work in computer simulation and modeling, particularly as I have become aware of the various data problems and issues with modern climate models. But even I’m appalled at the e-mails, documents, and source code that have come out of the CRU. This goes far beyond honest disagreements of collection and interpretation of data; it shows active suppression of dissenting opinions and deliberate manipulation of data and models to achieve a desired result. ..bruce.. |
And by the way, while the e-mails don’t show a “massive conspiracy”, the 40 or so people who wrote and/or received the e-mails in question represent some of the top names in the AGW field and are widely distributed both in terms of geography and institutions (including in US government research centers). ..bruce.. |
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/22/global-warmings-impacts-h_n_366994.html And before you scream “That is a liberal site!” note that he’s simply linking to an AP article. Just because 1998 was the hottest year on record doesn’t mean global warming has ended, it just means that it was the hottest year on record. The 2000′s are the hottest decade on record. That, and what on Earth does this have to do with anything Mormon related? |
Noah: “Guys, I’m telling you, it’s gonna rain, and gonna rain very very hard.” |
Daniel, It looks like the “consensus” was wrong in Noah’s day. |
There sure isn’t much actual argument with the OP going on here, as Javelin pointed out. Though to consider this evidence of the weakness of DKL’s position seems premature, at best. |
Jack, Uh, Al Gore is like unto Noah, and DKL is like unto the Local Guys who can’t stand that he was right. |
I could have been the first to comment yesterday, but I know sometimes the first comment can set the tone of following comments and I didn’t want to send this on tangents. Before I say what I want to say I want to say–Jack! It is good to see you! My computer was crashed for about a year and I am so very good that I did not access from my work computer so I missed seeing everyone. Well, I hope you are the same Jack! :) Now to science– As far as someone outside a field discussing science, I had an education course where the professor would often site how people from outside communities would often have insights that people in the specialized community would not see. Recently I was reading about writing and literacy in the encylopedia and it said that beyond regular literacy that some consider a class of elite literacy of literature, law, and science. Maybe the scientific community thinks that those from the outside don’t have enough specialization or understanding. Chris Matthews seems to generalize people in a negative way who did not accept the “settled” science of evolution and global warming. I am not sure what his feelings were in light of the recent information. I saw him interview a man who was stating his case against global warming and giving reasons that seemed logical from my point of view. The man had a hard time because the perception of Matthews and the other man that it is settled science. Matthews made a comment that seemed to indicate that this man would not accept the facts of evolution and global warming. The man said that he did not see evolution contradicting with his religious beliefs. Maybe that is neither here nor there, but to me they are interlated in the manner of the scientific community saying that we have to take their word for it. I did hear a man once who was very unimpressive speaking against the belief of the damage of global warming. I think he said something about the Dutch living on water and human innovation. I thought if that was the best that they had that the anti-global warming believers were not very plausible in their arguments. I do recall an article years ago about a man showing something that seemed to be a positive effect of carbon dioxide but it has been so long and maybe I am wrong. At any rate, I am glad that DKL seems to have not been snowed by the faulty data! I went to a state University and to their credit when we studied evolution the instructor said it was a theory and that God is not someone that you can study in a labratory. I loved that she did not require one to adhere to the theory. In addition, I was taking Child Psychology later and that the professor was showing a video on evolution and felt a need to invite anyone if they wanted to give the creation view if they wanted. I did not take the opportunity, but was grateful for her open willingness. When I took Intro to Earth Science and Envioronmental Science in about 1992, the professor said that in the history of the world(as in how scientistic believe the world to be) that there were such variations in temperature that we could not make a case at present for any global warming. I think Gore spoke to this and seemed to show some dramatic reasons for the alarm at present. Last night, I saw a lady who I think was from Alaska speaking of Eskimos crying when some ice that had been there their entire lives no longer is there. I think she said it came down in an avalanche. I was just turning stations and just caught a glimpse. I am concerned about the possible implications of ice melting. I do not know enough but I would want to error on the side of caution. However, I am sorry that I use way too much paper and hate to feel guilty. My feelings of guilt makes me want to rationalize that global warming is not true. My parents think Gore is great by the way and should have been President. Yes, I had a liberal upbringning. On the other hand, the think certain Republicans are like very evil. I just wanted to throw that in there as liberals are so often given a bad name on conservative blogs and all. Well, I guess that depends on how you define liberal. My upbringing was more about the economy and the rights of labor than about the issues that have penetrated the Democratic party in recent decades. Even when I considered myself a strong Democrat, I have always been Pro Life. Well, I just wanted to say all this because it makes me mad when people say such mean things about liberals when some of them are very sweet and caring people. Well, I didn’t expect to digress so much. I think I might just go to DKL’s link to see with my lack of scientific background if I can understand it. Please nobody hate me for my comments because I hate to be hated even if I don’t know about it. Also, I should state that I probably lean more on the side of there being no evidence for global warming. I talk in such circles that it probably is hard to tell. |
This isn’t the first time global-warming-ists have been caught in lies and scandal. 1) When the first big UN reports of global-warming came out, during the clinton years, they included the names of all the dissenting scientists as having _supported_ the global-warming conclusions, when in fact, those dissenting scientists had disclaimed the conclusions, or were unaware that those conclusions had been added to the report _after_ their involvement was over. 2) the “Northwest Passage” scandal. When ice had broken up in parts around northern Canada, so that ships could pass around most of it, the alarmists said that was first time in HISTORY that that ice had broken up and not been solid. That was a lie. It actually happens on a 50 year cycle. 3) the Antarctic ice cap is melting. Another misleading statement. The ice in Antarctica may be shrinking in horizontal dimensions, but we live in a 3D world. The ice sheet on Antarctica is actually getting THICKER over time, ie, piling up. It’s very likely that the total mass of ice on the south polar ice cap is actually increasing. 4) Look up ABC’s John Stossel’s reports on the global warming lies. He’s been debunking it for years. He pointed out how they were already caught cooking-the-books years ago: 1) cherry picking data, 2) shifting the number of temperature sensing stations to higher-temp cities from rural areas, 3) and who cares if the average temperature in Siberia goes from -41 to -40?, that kind of thing doesn’t have an overall effect, as it’s still well below freezing, 4) a decade or more of warm winters has already happened several times in recorded history, it’s a CYCLE folks! |
DKL said: In the context of your post, I believe the “morons” to which you refer are the scientists, right, rather than the public at large? But it’s worth pointing out that for most of the public (including myself) who are not well-versed in climate science, it often makes sense to defer to what we’ve understood as the scientific consensus, even if we realize that the consensus is not infallible, or even necessarily correct in this instance. Our ignorance (with respect to correct scientific understandings, if that’s indeed what this is) is a type of rational ignorance. And it doesn’t help matters that, broadly speaking, the side of the aisle that vigorously promotes climate change skepticism is the same side where anti-evolutionists and ID-ers hang out. (I say “broadly speaking” because I realize climate change skeptics seem to be a more erudite, level-headed breed than, say, Creationists. And I know that NR, for example, has published lots of pieces critical of global warming, but would presumably never showcase anti-evolutionary tracts). So yes, there is a “if I deny the reality of the global warming problem, am I just like the Creationists?” fear in a lot of people. This may be unfortunate, but surely you can understand why it exists. The frustrating aspect of the global warming debate, to me, has been how unable or unwilling so many are to separate the scientific question from the policy question. Not that the latter shouldn’t be informed by the former (of course it should), but conceptually, many seem to think that once global warming reaches a certain level of “badness”, all bets are off, and a careful, rational analysis of costs and benefits is no longer necessary or even desirable. |
Bookslinger, I appreciate your insights and the date you add to support your statements. Confutus, well put! If you are who I think you are, you read science textbooks for leisure. I value your opinion. I think that I should stop by the independent forum web site and study some of the science data there and how it connects to other bodies of knowledge. I am so sorry for how I came across earlier. I really should plan things out and not just type everything as it pops in my head. But that is how I blog I write. What I am most sorry for is being immature. Isn’t a good thing that I didn’t start the thread out? Don’t comment on that by the way. :) |
type data to support statements is what I meant |
Aaron (23) said:
I really appreciate that point. Even if the science were flawless it does not follow that rolling back 300 years of technological and political innovations would be the best response, or even a good one. |
Barb! Good to see you around here again. Listen, don’t ever feel bad about how you write. We want the real Barb: intelligent and sincere–and whatever flows from that will always be worth reading. I think Bookslinger thouches on some things that I find really frustrating. And that’s that I can’t make heads or tails of what the “consensus” is agreeing upon at times — Antartica being the best example of that right now. Well, is the ice increasing or decreasing? You read one study and you get the idea that it’s really packing up down there. You read another and you come away with the idea that the ice-shelves are dissapearing at record rates. Now, maybe both are happening. Maybe warm ocean currents are causing the shelves to melt while increased precipitation is causing the land based ice to thicken. But be that at is may, when everything is tainted by alarmism it gets really difficult to tell how bad things really are (or aren’t as the case may be). |
seems less and less like “climate consensus” and more and more like “climate nonsensus” |
After (wasting?) a couple of days chasing this through the Internet, I (finally) looking at the Real Climate website. I think I may have been a little too quick to judge. A collection of the apparent worst comments anyone says, concentrated from some 13 years and dumped all at once, is going to sound pretty damning. The whole story is somewhat more complex than the critics are prone to assume. |
Hi, Barb |
Yeap, I knew it. We should shoot those scientist, with our 2nd amendment bazookas, and name GOP supporters only as the new scientists for our modern world! Maybe Hannity can be the new chief scientist? God bless those GOP scientists who have save us from our ignorance -us climate change supporters. Let the GOP save the world and bring freedom to all peoples! Sure! |
Even if global warming is not happening as quickly as scientists propose, I am glad for legislative measures that will make this earth a cleaner place. We are stewards of this earth, are we not? |
Charlie, Are you implying that AGW supporters tend to lean left? And if so, are you prepared to say that that in no way colors the science? |
Jack, No. But that almost all anti-global warming campaigners are right wingers, and the more extreme their view, the more right-winger the person is, aka Hannity, DKL, Limbaugh etc… So then just fire all the scientists, who lie and cheat about GW, and let DKL, Hannity and Limbaugh take their places !!! sure .. :) |
Let’s look at some of the kinds of responses that we’ve gotten from people who take issue with my post: 1. We should still take care of the world. This is true, but we can now rest assured that “taking care of the world” has nothing to do with the impact that greenhouse gasses have on the climate. 2. Well then let’s burn the earth. It takes a special brand of stupid to take those who argue against extremism (in this case, me arguing against anthropogenic global warming) and argue against them by implying that they’re arguing an opposing position so extreme that literally nobody adheres to. 3. Theirs no argument in this post. Of course there is not. I provide multiple links to arguments that I formulated in another thread. Regarding the leaked emails, look them up. The do exactly what I say that they do; viz., they show global warming alarmists pretending to do real science while
4. Nothing criminal occurred. Really? These emails show scientists manipulating scientific data with the intent of influencing government grants, expenditures, legislation, and regulations. This fraudulent global-warming propaganda impacted the way that investors and lenders assessed the prospects of companies — even whole industries. It resulted in the reward of a Nobel Prize based on fraudulent information. I’d also like to see civil damages assessed against these anti-scientists advancing global warming propaganda. My new slogan is, “Gore lied. Industries died.” Aaron, you make an interesting point. For my part, I’m committed to the view that in spite of a need for increasingly specialized fields of science, the target audience for good science must often be the educated reader in general. The current scandal bears out the fact that the “peer review” process is little more than a small group of insiders who spend at least some of their time manufacturing orthodoxy. Only by forcing scientists to engage a broader audience can we increase accountability. Regarding your question about whether the layman should be deferential to the scientist: Too few scientists are generally deferential to anyone, so why should we defer to them? The response I got on Devyn’s thread was typical: No matter what topic came up, they wanted to pretend to be an expert on it. This was, no doubt, their standard approach, but it caused a real problem for them when they tried it on me, since I actually am an expert on everything. Thus, the thread proved terribly embarrassing for them. |
no, your new slogan is Drill Baby Drill |
We can now rest assured that “takÂing care of the world†has nothÂing to do with the impact that greenÂhouse gasses have on the climate. This just isn’t true, Dave. There are lots of good scientific reasons to think that greenhouse gasses and the climate are key. There are well-understood mechanisms by which warming can be predicted, chemical studies supporting those mechanisms, and the raw time series data which under virtually any analysis shows the last decade to have been the hottest in basically the modern era. |
Well, I’m just confused as hell. |
Basically, Dave, you’re engaged in PR heckling rather than intellectual argument. I’m very proud. |
My favorite part about this post is that how elegantly it demonstrates the evidence for Enron-style malfeasance in the emails. Actually, my favorite favorite part is the how the post enumerates all the mounting evidence, found in the emails or elsewhere, against the falsifiable claims made by climate scientists about the anthropogenic nature of changing climate patterns. After all, everyone knows that if the world were really getting warmer, each day would be warmer than the previous day, climate science being basically the equivalent of meteorology, as opposed to a probabilistic metric for long term, multivariate, fluctuating patterns. I think we all have confidence that DKL — like all real scientists (especially the kinds in the employ of greenhouse producing industries and the think tanks they finance) — came to this question, not with a predetermined conclusion for which he cherry-picked evidence (cf. emails SCANDAL!!!). Take notes, all you wannabe scientists who think you understand how science is done. If you want to test the claims of another scientist (or modestly sized group of scientists), here’s how you do it: 1) Gather data. By which I mean, find some evidence that your adversaries (and you really should think of them as adversaries) can be petty or mean-spirited or even downright dismissive toward people who present good-faith challenges to their claims; 2) tell everybody that this new data constitutes evidence not only that the adversaries in questions are criminals but that the claims they have been making are now clearly falsified; 3) find a third piece of evidence, one that doesn’t actually falsify any of the claims made by your adversaries, and brandish it like a smoking gun. Rinse. Repeat. |
DKL: “The current scandal bears out the fact that the “peer review†process is little more than a small group of insiders who spend at least some of their time manufacturing orthodoxy. Only by forcing scientists to engage a broader audience can we increase accountability.” First, at most the current scandal reveals facts about a faulty peer review process within climate research, not science at large. Perhaps you didn’t mean to paint with such a broad brush? Second, how do you propose to “force scientists to engage a broader audience”? One way seems to be what you’re doing here: challenging what scientists publish. Did you have something else in mind? (Of course, even as you challenge scientists you become part of the peer review process in some sense….) Third, would you propose an alternative or just an adjustment to peer review? If so, what? Fourth, “I’m committed to the view that in spite of a need for increasingly specialized fields of science, the target audience for good science must often be the educated reader in general.” That reads like the “Instructions to Authors” section of pretty much every journal I’ve ever looked at, so I’m not clear how your commitment translates to anything substantially different than what we already have. |
Ah, Dan and DKL together again on the same thread! [sniff] It gets me all nostalgic… almost as much as those royal blue football uniforms. |
Mr. Science: Basically, Dave, you’re engaged in PR heckling rather than intellectual argument. I’m very proud. If you were a serious enough thinker to read the comments that I link to — you know, the ones where I say something to the effect of, “click here to see my argument” — you’d see that I’ve made my argument. I don’t know whether you’re a global warming “scientist” or not, but your definitely stupid and sarcastic enough to be mistaken for one. Just a tip: If you’re going to be a wiseass, you’ll severely undermine your position if you act like an idiot at the same time. BrianJ, I have a friend who decided to go into a different field of research because he had a personality conflict with his PhD advisor (luckily, my friend was able to get tenure at the university where he worked based on his masters and on the strength of his publishing record in other areas). My friend changed research areas because his PhD advisor was pretty important, and my friend would never have made any progress in his career or gotten anything published in that area as long as his PhD advisor was living. The global warming anti-scientists were able to get away with their shenanigans exactly because that sort of bias and politicizing is the norm — everywhere. Bertrand Russell (no enemy of science) was fond of pointing out that most of the scientists who were advancing eugenics in the 1st half of the 20th century were Nordics with parents in the professional classes. So yeah, I am talking about the peer review process in general. And no, that doesn’t paint with too broad of a brush. And by increased levels of engagement, I mean not treating challenges by non-scientists as beneath contempt, which pretty much means that you can’t use the fact that something didn’t come from a peer review journal as evidence that its false. |
DKL: My personal experience differs substantially from your friend’s—not only in terms of my own research but also from what I’ve witnessed between scientists I know. All anecdotal, obviously, but it’s the reason I’m not buying into your point and still think your brush is broad. “And by increased levels of engagement, I mean not treating challenges by non-scientists as beneath contempt, which pretty much means that you can’t use the fact that something didn’t come from a peer review journal as evidence that its false.” No argument from me there (who in their right mind would argue against that?). But it reminds me of a favorite saying: “Just because it’s published in Nature doesn’t mean that it’s false.” I’ll ask again: Do you propose an alternative or just an adjustment to peer review? If so, what? |
BrianJ, I’ve proposed an alternative (viz., engaging lay participants and de-emphasizing peer-review as the ultimate standard) and your response is that scientists are already supposed to do that. I replied that they aren’t actually doing it, and you disagree and ask again what my alternative is. I’ve stated my alternative, and it’s dishonest of you to pretend that I haven’t just because you disagree with me — though it is certainly effective from a rhetorical point of view. You are behaving like a climategate anti-scientist. What’s next? An indignant touting of your credentials? |
Brad, the emails demonstrate that warming models and predictions were based on cooked up evidence — like Dan Rather’s forged papers. If the evidence in favor of the anti-scientists’ “falsifiable” theories was so strong, then why concoct and distort evidence to support them? It’s frankly embarrassing to read your reference to “green house producing industries,” as though there’s some distopian corporate conspiracy to block good science. We’ve all seen how such attempts really work — specifically, they don’t. Did big tobacco come close to prevailing in the face of science? How about chemical companies that made asbestos or DDT? Were the scientists who fought against those corporate powers forced to abandon science to defeat their bad guys? Of course not. The problem with our system is that the government exerts too much control over business, not vice versa. At this point, its too much to ask to devote serious resources to investigating the question of anthropogenic global warming (here’s a list of reports on problems that global warming is supposed to cause; to the careful reader it’s more scandalous than the emails themselves). The only reasonable and rational response is to treat global warming theories like a bad practical joke and move on. |
The real evidence for climate change is found in the on-the-ground effects. Ecologists world-wide are seeing the effects. I see it in my tsetse fly research as they enter valleys they’ve never entered before as they pop over mountains that previously acted as a barriers. In the sudden redistribution of species every where we look we see massive evidence for climate change. I know of no ecologist who does not believe the climate is changing–especially those doing arctic and alpine research. We see it from the coral reefs, to the top of Mt. Kilimanjaro. Some people sent some emails. Max Hall ripped on the U. People say stupid things. I think this is the only inference one can make on the emails. Their measurements are a drop in the bucket to what to the evidence accumulating on many fronts. This is what I love about the deniers. They pick piece meal at things while offering no explanation for all the other evidence coming in. If it is a conspiracy, many of Earth’s species have joined it. |
SteveP, first of all, that’s all anecdotal. Second of all, the climate changes all the time. The questions surrounding any given change are these: 1. Is it severe and long term? We’ve seen from the leaked emails that questions #1 and #2 have been answered by cheats and liars with falsified data. We know from experience that questions #3, #4, #5, and #6 were never even addressed (and now we know that they don’t need to be). Global warming anti-scientists have simply exploited people’s fear by playing on the alluring but naïve assumption that we live in the best of all possible worlds, so any woman-made or man-made changes must be a bad thing. That’s bad science quite apart from the leaked emails, and it entitles us to reject all of your silly and preposterous claims that there’s still “evidence accumulating on other fronts (honest there is!)” (By the way, it doesn’t really help your case when you say stuff like that, because it positively reeks of desperation.) When it is so easily shown of an entire field of research that it is a form of anti-science, I will not admit that the incriminating evidence is some isolated anomaly. Just to give you a little perspective: If this were CBS, you’d be fired just like Dan Rather. It must really suck to work in a field that maintains lower standards than the worst-rated network evening news program. Your leaders have been shown to be charlatans, and it’s time for you to abandon the global warming ship. It’s over. Move on. Don’t continue to sully your reputation by becoming an apologist for a portfolio of dead superstitions. |
I don’t doubt that the climate has been warming in many parts of the world. There are, as SteveP has noted, many other indicators besides direct temperature measurements. However, these say nothing at all about why it is warming, whether, how much, or how long it will contine to do so. Biology is probably an accurate but somewhat lagging indicator of global warming. Its value as a leading indicator can be rationally doubted. Given the demonstrated poor handling of data by the CRU and the opacity of how the “cleaned up, value added” data it still has was derived, it is no longer certain how much the climate has been warming, let alone why. Regardless of the honesty of the researchers or lack thereof, if their climate modeling software, which we have not seen much of, is in as bad shape as the temperature data processing software, some of which we have, their predictions are most certainly not settled science. They could be mostly right, and the errors fairly minor. But at this point, we can no longer be sure of that. |
News flash: Foxnews reports that President Obama will fire Dr John Holdren as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and replace him with DKL. DKL is expected to clean up the ongoing conspiracy in Global Warming which that very wicked Al Gore started. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/21/obama-climate-change-john-holdren |
1. Is it severe and long term? – yes 2. Is it caused by human activ ity? —yes 3. Can it be stopped by human activ ity? —yes 4. If it can be stopped by human activ ity, then what will it cost to stop it? —astronomical. heavy taxes on the filthy rich up to 90% 5. What will the cost of adap ta tion be? —unbearable 6. If it can be stopped by human activ ity, will the cost of stop ping it exceed the cost of adapting? —no |
Daniel, you forgot the [citation needed] after each of your responses. |
LOVE this tagline: “apologist for a portfolio of dead superstitions.” I wonder if DKL would lend that to FARMS (now NAMI) for their promotional materials. |
“We’ve seen from the leaked emails that ques tions #1 and #2 have been answered by cheats and liars with fal si fied data.” Your inference that because bad science exists that all science is bad is false. Since many of these species have been in place on geologic time scales the answer to your first two questions are yes. The answers to the others depend upon how valuable we consider things like the ecosystem services that support our economic structures. Already we see political destabilization by the long term drought in Africa where I work. The glacier support system for India and China’s water is failing. What will the cost of destabilization in such high population developing countries be? We’ll see. |
SteveP, I accept that climate change is real and having a massive impact on certain parts of the globe. What I thinking scientists have collectively failed to show is that this change is man-made. Can you point me to the most significant evidence in favor of man-made climate change? (Genuine request) |
Droughts are a recurring feature of the the earth’s climate (as political turmoil is of humanity). Identifying a drought is several steps away from identifying a cause or a cure, such as lowering atmospheric IR absorption. For example, a few months back in Physics Today (a monthly magazine published by the American Institute of Physics for members of its member societies), a couple letters to the editor called one of their reporters to task for overreaching in her piece on climate change in the American Southwest. The reporter back pedaled claiming “I mention the low water levels in Lake Mead among my examples, but I did not mean to imply that the study could impute the causes of such local conditions. Later in the story, I discuss Lake Mead in more detail. Both Gallagher and Robert Ayers have read more into that part than is actually there. I made no assertions about the current drought but rather reported on a prediction about possible future drought conditions. In particular, I cite work by Barnett and David Pierce, who estimated that the current level of water withdrawals from Lake Mead is unsustainable if one folds in climate model predictions that river runoff into the region will fall 10%–30% by 2050. Barnett and Pierce are not claiming that the current dry conditions are due to global warming.” |
To give a sense of the recurrence of drought, here is a bit from a 2004 USGS fact sheet, “Climatic Fluctuations, Drought, and Flow in the Colorado River Basin”:
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Most comprehensive introduction to man induced global warming theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Warming One should go further and read the foot notes. Wikipedia can not a authoriative source but a reference point for further research |
Dissenting scientist about man induced global warming theory. Again check the sources. |
Gomez, This is a good source of good science and update info–including the email hacking referred to in this post: |
DKL, 45: “I’ve stated my alternative, and it’s dishonest of you to pretend that I haven’t just because you disagree with me…. You are behaving like a climate gate anti-scientist. What’s next? An indignant touting of your credentials? LOL! Dishonest? Confused, pedantic, obtuse, or even ignorant—maybe—but not dishonest. Whatever “alternative” you stated is in such general terms that I just don’t see it. You say, “Scientists should engage non-scientists.” That’s just fluffy-talk until you say how you propose scientists should do that. Your alternative might as well be, “Scientists should do better”—I guess that’s an alternative, but my question is how “better” looks in practice. As I stated in 41, I’m not clear how your commitment/alternative translates to anything different than what we already have; thus, for all practical purposes, you haven’t proposed anything at all. What’s next, DKL? Indignant name-calling? Oh wait, you already did that. And where did that come from, huh? When have I ever “touted my credentials”? The closest I came to that was in response to your anecdote about your PhD friend, but I hardly touted my credentials to say “I’m right because I have X degree.” |
Speaking of tree rings, John: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html My summary: the CRU programs use tree-ring data as a proxy for temperature, but after 1960 the temperature suggested by the tree-ring data diverges from the actual recorded temperature in those regions. Hence, the researchers introduced a fudge factor (a perfectly good practical tool for a scientist who knows about a systematic error, by the way) in order to correct for this divergence. The huge question with this is why should the data far before 1960 be trusted as a good proxy for the temperature when the post-1960 cannot be so trusted? How do we ensure it wasn’t a coincidence from when temperature records began until 1960? |
Phil Jones steps down while under internal investigation: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9CAM0VG0&show_article=1 |
For a timely article about these things, today’s NY Times has this in the Science Times section. |
My whole life (I’m 55) we’ve been told by progressives that holding on to the past in the face of change is a sign of fear, that we shouldn’t be afraid of change, that we should embrace it and celebrate it. So now, according to them, the biggest change of all is headed our way and they suddenly fold and turn into a bunch of environmental John Birchers… |
BrianJ: LOL! Dishonest? Confused, pedantic, obtuse, or even ignorant — maybe — but not dishonest. No. Dishonest. Your earlier comment slighted me for failing to provide an alternative. In this comment, you say that my alternative is hardly an alternative, and then you argue that it’s an ephemeral alternative. Either way, it is an alternative, and if I hadn’t have taken you to task for misrepresenting my position, you’d still be harping on this fictional gap in my position and congratulating yourself for having pinpointed it. This is a pretty low standard of intellectual integrity, and the fact that your utterly accustomed to playing this sort of argumentative game doesn’t make it honest. BrianJ: Whatever “alternative” you stated is in such general terms that I just don’t see it. You say, “Scientists should engage non-scientists.†That’s just fluffy-talk until you say how you propose scientists should do that. Actually, I provide a couple of examples of scientists of how scientists should not engage non-scientists; viz., the way that the scientists in Devyn’s thread behave and the way that the global warming theorists have behaved. And I’ve insisted that non-scientists stop giving scientists a pass on such poor behavior. All you’ve done is say that scientists already know that they’re supposed to behave better than they do. BrianJ: Your alternative might as well be, “Scientists should do better†— I guess that’s an alternative, but my question is how “better” looks in practice. As I stated in 41, I’m not clear how your commitment/alternative translates to anything different than what we already have; thus, for all practical purposes, you haven’t proposed anything at all. When scientists are ashamed of behaving the way that the scientists behave in Devyn’s thread, then we’ll have made progress. As it stands now, no matter how much they know about how they should behave, the kind of behavior demonstrated in Devyn’s thread is more the norm than otherwise. If you want me to go on in any more detail, you’ll have to wait until I publish a post about alternatives to the peer review system. For now, I’m frankly more interested in discussing the fact that the email leaks constitute decisive proof that I was right about global warming. |
The 2000’s are the hottest decade on record. So they say. The pertinent authorities have done so much opportunistic data fiddling that is highly doubtful. The 1930s in the United States were nearly as warm, if not warmer, for example. There is also considerable evidence that in many parts of the world (if not all), the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than it is now. Most of that evidence is a matter of historical record, no questionable / falsified tree ring reconstructions required. |
#58-60: Thanks |
DKL: “No. Dishonest. Your earlier comment slighted me….” I’m sorry that you saw a slight where none was intended (my earlier comment; I’ll admit that my next comment was meant to poke a little fun). “congratulating yourself for having pinpointed it.” I really don’t get my kicks from arguing and winning points. I know you do—or at least, I know you’ve told me in the past that you do. I debate because I want to learn something; you debate because you want to win something. I’m not making a judgment statement there, btw, just pointing out a difference between us. I sometimes even enjoy reading a good debate, watching how the “combatants” wield language in ways I cannot…. (It’d be interesting to see you as a teacher: a student raises his hand to ask for clarification and you berate him for accusing you of misrepresenting the facts, etc. Not every question is a challenge, DKL.) I’m a scientist and work with scientists and if there’s something I can learn about how to be a better scientist—including how to interact with those who fund my research—then I’m interested to learn it. I just haven’t read anything from this post that fits that description. Again, that’s not a negative judgment as though I’m calling you dishonest in your post; you’re not obligated to write a post that includes practical suggestions, and when I ask for practical suggestions you’re free to respond, “not in this post.” Of course, you’re also free to chastise me for asking the question. “you’ll have to wait until I publish a post about alternatives to the peer review system.” I look forward to it. |
BrianJ: I really don’t get my kicks from arguing and winning points. I know you do — or at least, I know you’ve told me in the past that you do. Funny. I don’t know anyone who says, “I don’t debate to learn anything, because I get my kicks just from arguing and winning points.” Almost everyone claims to debate just for the sheer joy of learning. But you’re lying here, too. Look, if you simply said that you misspoke, that would be consistent with the level of intellectual and argumentative virtue that you purport to have. Instead, you keep insisting that you were somehow justified in saying that I didn’t propose an alternative. The truth is that, in spite of your attempted smear, I don’t get my kicks just from the heat of the debate. Many people have attempted the same smear that you have because they hate being wrong and it bugs them that I won’t budge when it comes to putting a magnifying glass on their mistakes. I only argue because I like to learn things, and the proof o this is that I frequently admit to my mistakes, misstatements, etc, because I’m honest and I’m not in the argument for the battle or the victory. In fact, I don’t know anyone on the bloggernacle who has more frequently and readily admitted his mistakes (and apologized for them where appropriate) in public forums. That’s intellectual integrity. It’s also consistent with a scientific mindset, and it’s interesting how blind you are to this and how prideful you are about your positions, in spite of your repeated claims to the contrary, as though an express disavowal of intellectual dishonesty and a tidy explanation of what’s right magically transform you into a person with some level of intellectual integrity. Looks like you’re one more scientist who needs to work on how he engages non-scientists. |
I frequently admit to my mistakes, misstatements… In fact, I don’t know anyone on the bloggernacle who has more frequently and readily admitted his mistakes (and apologized for them where appropriate) Keep on digging, DKL. |
I saw this post and immediately searched for bfwebster’s comments, because he’s got actual technical street cred in the modeling arena. I don’t trust politicians or accountants or deadheads to understand how this stuff works… |
Barb, so glad you’re back. It feels like old times. :) To whoever said Al Gore is like Noah (it takes awhile to scroll down on my BB and I forgot): al gore needs to get himself a smalller ark. I’ll pay more attention to him when he practices what he preaches. Bad word carbon credits. But, you know, southern Utah is in its—10th? year of drought. Something’s rotten in Denmark. Which, btw, today on House Hunters, I saw this toilet in Germany (it was international) that you can pick to flush with a little water or more. I thought that was very efficient. Can you get them in America? Carry on the intellectual argument. |
Peter, is DKL digging his own grave, or yours? |
#67, I heard that on Hannity yesterday and thought “but look how that turned out.” |
Anne, since 1226 AD, Utah has had 13 droughts that lasted 15 years or more, almost two per century. |
The big problem with the 1930s drought in the United States was due to poor to non-existent soil conservation practices. Once they got that under control, things got a lot better. No dust bowls since. |
#67 Mark D. Can you give sources for your assertions? |
Which ones? The MWP is controversial, because most global warmists would prefer that it never happened. Mr. Mann (one of the guys under investigation) has previously been caught using dodgy statistical techniques to pretend that the MWP didn’t exist. The infamous hockey stick graph is somewhere between statistical incompetence and scientific fraud. This article here discusses the historical and archeological evidence for the MWP, the origin of the term, and so on. You can easily find an MWP denialist article for balance. With regard to the warmth of the 1930s, this article documents the current official (GISS) record. According to NASA GISS, 1934 was the hottest year on record in the U.S., followed by 1998, 1921, 2006, 1931, 1999, 1953, 1990, 1938, and 1939. That is despite some evidence that GISS has been somewhere between careless and opportunistic about their temperature data adjustments as well. Recent emails document one scientist distorting the temperature record to hide the rather inconvenient warmth in the middle of the century. |
Today’s Nature editorial puts the emails in context: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7273/full/462545a.html |
Today’s Nature editorial is a muted blend of lies and apologetics. The game is over for the global warming crowd, and this is Nature’s lame attempt to salvage something from it. This is like when Dan Rather maintained that his story was true in spite of the fact that the supporting documentation was fraudulent. Let’s be perfectly clear: These climatologists openly scorned disagreeable research because it was not published in peer-reviewed journals, as though that indicated that the disagreeable research was of dubious quality. The emails demonstrated that these scientists worked strenuously behind the scenes to prevent disagreeable research from being published based solely on its outlook. That’s bad faith. And with their bad faith, they ruthlessly impacted careers, industries, court decisions, government regulation, government appropriation, and legislation. These guys aren’t just human, they’re the worst sort of humans. Let’s suppose, for argument’s sake, that this was the only thing that the emails showed (and it isn’t). Even then, nothing that these guys did can be trusted. Nothing that people did who relied upon them can be trusted. There is nothing to salvage, nothing to save, nothing to build on. And if global warming is to have any credibility, it must start back at square one. But the truth is that rags like Nature and Lancet have been little more than the supermarket tabloids of science for decades now. Today’s editorial is just more evidence of that. The public is watching, and if academic institutions and publications fall into line behind the theories advanced by charlatans, we’ll see this crisis spread to impact the credibility of other areas of science. |
“worked strenuously behind the scenes to prevent disagreeable research from being published based solely on its outlook” But in the end the did publish it. That was the point the editorial made, what they said they were going to do (block publication) and what they did do (allow publication) show science working. Bad faith is what you ‘do’ not what you ‘say’ you’d like in private emails. |
heh, still stuck on Dan Rather. As if that’s some shot across the bow, or hell a shot in the heart. |
SteveP: But in the end they did publish it. Your wording here exposes the moral depravity of those who defend the anti-science climatologists: a single article got published — one article slipped through. Thanks to the climatologists’ efforts, no other article was published. And thanks to their efforts, the editor of the journal that published the one article was forced to resign for publishing it, which allows reporters to say that the article caused a scandal that forced the resignation of the editor (that’s exactly what an article in The Independent claimed last week!). That’s not science working. It’s suppressing honest inquiry. Face it: It was bad faith, as is the Nature editorial. These kind of dishonest apologetics are nothing more than an attempt to obscure the issue. The longer you play games like this, the worse it looks for scientists in general. Let’s see how honest you are, SteveP: Are you going to try to fight for the preservation of science’s reputation by denouncing anti-science that exploits science’s prestige in order to further personal political aims? Or are you going to continue being part of the blue wall of silence? |
The secret blood oaths I swore when I became a scientist forbid my commenting. |
Nice! |
I agree that Climategate casts doubt on most AGW conclusions and should make most people skeptical, at least in the short term- thats what science is, after all. That said, I generally adhere to sentiments like this from a recent discussion on this topic:
When it comes to ideal measures for combatting AGW, I think many schemes proposed by liberal political constituents are way off, but then I think that about many liberal ideas. But I think a major flaw of modern conservatism is the knee-jerk negative reaction to and stereotype of environmental issues as left-wing nuttery or social agenda. So the data and conclusions should be judged on their merits rather than all AGW-supportive work being put under a Climategate microscope. |
The use of combustion for the benefit of man is not just consumer culture, it is culture of every kind. Belief that Prometheus had it coming to him should be the province of Theodore Kaczynski and those like him willing to reject civilization, yet somehow, many comfortably warm people also want fire taken away. |
That reminds me: Many complain that there were concerns decades ago about global cooling; that doesn’t matter much to me, but there is a much bigger about-face going on that does, for me, make anti-combustion advocacy hard to take seriously. All my life, I’ve heard we need to use hydrocarbon fuels sparingly because if we don’t they’ll run out, and the consequences of that will be dire. Now the story seems to be that we need to use them sparingly because they won’t run out, and the consequences of that will be dire. |
nasamomdele, it’s a lot worse than you think. I handle large data sets for a living. I’ve handled many of the largest unstructured data sets in history, and I’m an expert the sorts of data quality issues associated with such data sets. I know more than any scientist or publisher on the issue — more than the yahoos at Nature or Lancet. It’s my professional opinion that no data handled the way that is described in the 247-page “Harry Read Me” file could yield usable or reliable information. Period. That’s the end of anthropogenic global warming right there. There are so many things in this email set that when taken alone, they destroy the credibility of global warming theory. Taken together, they paint a picture that would be comical if hadn’t wasted so much tax-payer money and impacted the savings of individuals who invested in industries impacted by climatologist fraud. So drop the crap about how this is a “knee jerk reaction.” You’re just repeating more apologetic lies that serve dead superstitions. There is no defense that answers the issues introduced by the emails, just more propaganda. The emails already establish that the UK climatologists were eager to exploit their prestige to spread sheer propaganda. The apologetics being offered to defend global warming show that other climatologists are, too. When other cops defended the cop that Obama said acted stupidly, the natural reaction that people had was “cops defend cops.” Now that we have scientists who acted stupidly, we see that scientists defend scientists. The funny thing is that everybody defending global warming in spite of the emails has been advancing the global warming agenda for a decade. Of course they’re going to continue to defend it. Remember, the Catholic Church defended its excommunication of Galileo for several hundred years. |
DKL, If you consider my saying that a conservative ought not give a knee-jerk reaction as my telling you not to give a knee-jerk reaction, so be it. I don’t think you needed that message- but I think there are conservatives out there that do. The crux of my comment was the support of the idea that conservatives ought to be concerned with conservation. Being skeptical of AGW is healthy for our understanding of climate science so that we can make strides in actually conserving the conditions of the Earth and not just making political strides. Not just that, its scientific method to make every attempt to disprove a theory. As far as data goes, I’m well aware of the ramifications of data tampering- I work with transportation data sets every day, both producing analysis and inferences. I’m very familiar with garbage in, garbage out. So I can wholeheartedly jump on the train that would throw out the CRU data as garbage, not to mention much of the resulting literature due to tampering. I am not entirely familiar with the AGW data, though. Are the CRU data the primary data for AGW work? Are there not other data that are supportive of AGW theory? Or, bluntly put, is there good reason to believe that because of faulty data and peer review bullying that AGW has no basis? I’m not being apologetic, I’m being skeptical of skeptics- I’ve seen too many of them not to. |
#76, John, how do you know that? It makes sense but I wonder how you figured that out. I was thinking in the 1800′s, say, there wasn’t any same day media for reporting or the modern technology so they couldn’t get as alarmed as we do. |
Evidence of global warming |
Evidence of C02 increasing in the atomosphere |
well at least we have a new phrase in the lexicon: “Climategate denier” |
nasamomdele, the primary argument against those with enough sense to eschew global warming was that they were denying scientific consensus in peer-reviewed journals. This assertion fatally undercut by the fact that these scientists were conspiring to keep dissenting articles out of journals and to kill the careers of dissenting scientists. At this point, it won’t do to say, “conservatives may have been right, but for the wrong reasons.” The point is that they were right — in the face of the largest, most well-funded neo-McCarthyite smear campaign, they were right, and the neo-McCarthyite climatologists have been exposed for frauds. There’s really nothing else to discuss, except, perhaps, the remarkable fact that there are publications like Nature that want to continue to practice neo-McCayrthyism. |
DKL, I agree with your conclusions on the climategate matter wholeheartedly. Gorean/UN Climate Change in my mind is a sham that has sprouted a cacophony of misguided social agendas. I think it is worse than just bad science and bad scientists. There are “Conservatives” jumping on climategate with the intention of promoting environmentally unsustainable agendas-whether they impact the climate or the rare fuzzy bunnies. But this may be just me speaking as a Conservative Californian in back-asswards “conservative” Utah. So yeah, they can be right for the wrong reasons. But we can just talk about the fact that they were right, if that suits you better. |
God….you guys are still going on with this? Its dumb & dumber case here in this post. Dumb are those who come up with the conspiracy theories on CC and dumber are those who support those who come up with the conspiracy theories!!! |
Indications of man induced global warming Here is a summary |
Charlie, there’s no conspiracy theories here, just hard proof that man-induced global warming is a man-made fiction. |
More proof of what the leaked cliamategate emails already proved beyond a reasonable doubt: The Russians are claiming that the data they’ve provided has been distorted and falsified to support global warming theories. News like this will continue to pour forth for the simple reason that global warming has the same ontological status as Soviet economic forecasts. If it didn’t have such a potentially detrimental impact on policy making, legislation, and government spending, the futile efforts of flailing propagandists to pretend that there’s still anything left to global warming theories would be humorous. |
Here’s an amazing little amateur video that brings up some of the same concerns that seem to be bothering the Russians: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcsvaCPYgcI Really. Give it a chance. Don’t worry that it’s a quaint little warm and fuzzy father and son project. |
Excellent video, Jack. Thanks for posting the link. |
DKL, the problem with the Telegraph news report (that you link to at comment 101) is that it completely misrepresents the Russian IEA report. The report, found here (in Russion, but that’s OK) published a graph at the top of page 20 which shows a red line and a blue line. The red line is the temperature trend from the 121 stations used by the CRU, the blue line is the temperature trend using the full 426 Russian station set. The curves match just about exactly from about 1950 on. The Russian report shows that there was no distortion and no falsification, rather their data supports the anthropogenic global warming theory. How this is gotten exactly 180 degrees wrong by the news, again, is baffling. |
The datasets in the IEA report runs from 1870 to the present. Well, the smaller and the larger datasets do diverge quite a bit between 1870 and about 1940ish, but then they converge. The IEA report uses the entire dataset to produce their divergence numbers. This is the wrong way to go about it, because they imply that the divergence spreads equally across all the dates, but their very own graph shows otherwise. |
djinn, The problem is that the “cherry-picked” data has a substantial influence on how earlier (pre-1950) is read. The overall rise in temperature over the last century is far less dramatic when data from all the stations is included. 1975 is about as low as the pre-WWII low, for example. And so what we *don’t* have is a steady rise in temperature that mirrors a steady increase in CO2 emmissions. A very significant (omitted) detail, IMO. |
Here’s a fun way of looking the bigger picture: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/hockey-stick-observed-in-noaa-ice-core-data/ |
Well, Jack, Russia had quite a bit of upheaval between 1870 and 1950, what with the various revolutions, two world wars, massive population movements and the like, so what was going on at all those stations during that time? But the important data is the 1950′s-on stuff, and it is validated by the data set. Validated. |
That’s an out-and-out falsehood, djinn — just like the rest of your filthy propaganda. You can’t come here to spread you’re garbage unanswered. We’re not a peer reviewed journal controlled by thugs. For my part, I don’t much care whether you cling bitterly to your superstitions about the weather. But it does bug me that you proselyte for it. |
Perhaps the most reffered to document regarding this subject is the IPCC report. Have the people that cite this report actually read it? There is also a report named NIPCC, which has been about for a while. Has anybody actaully read this report? If it is a scientific point of view you are after – you should read both. The facts become more clear. Cheers, |