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| Wednesday, June 19, 2013 |
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House: Repubs pick up 50 plus seats Senate Repubs up 7-11 seats. This is kind of hard to call any more accurately right now. |
Yeah, I think that Republicans make major gains. They win the House and pull it tight again in the Senate. |
Bbell – interesting.. So House goes to Republicans and Senate is pretty even with Dems having an edge. John C – similar to Bbell. I tend to agree that the House likely flips, while the Senate is going to be close – I would love to see it go 50-50 with someone the moderate Republicans/independent liberals having significant power… |
I agree that Republicans will gain seats (although few of us, I would guess, could make plausible guesses about numbers); I am most interested to see how many Tea Party candidates succeed and how traditional Republicans fare, and then how they actually do in office. As a New Yorker, I am just crossing my fingers that Paladino doesn’t win for Governor. What a nut. |
House: Reps +80 |
Seing Spector lose in the PA Dem primary was enough for me. Everything else is like playing with house money. I’m currently on the hook for a colleague’s lunch at the Palm in DC if the Repubs House majority is less than 10 seats so I fearlessly predict a 10 seat Repub majority in the House. I’m less confident about the Senate but suspect Senator Reid will squeek out a victory and remain the most powerful Mormon in the US, but just barely. |
4 – ESO – Tea Party will be interesting – particularly in states like Delaware and Nevada… 5 – Paul – wow, you think it will be a wholesale slaughter of the Dems? 6 – rbc – good luck on the bet – Republicans picking up 50 in the house does not seem unreasonable… Reid to win? Hmmm… I hope he does. If he loses who is the next most powerful Mormon? Hatch or Romney? |
House: 225R/210D |
No idea about actual numbers – but I get a kind of twisted glee out of watching dominant parties fear for their majorities. This is one of the benefits of living in America, as this sort of thing happens often. |
Democrats will hold the Senate 53-47. Republicans will have the House 226-209. Pot will be legalized in California. Until a few weeks ago I thought the Republicans would take the majority or tie the Senate, but I think Reid is going to win now. I also think the Tea Party candidates that are being covered heavily in the media for Alaska, Nevada and Delaware will all lose. Not that the Tea Party is a bust, but that those candidates are all horrible. |
Reid is not doing so well in the polls lately. I wouldn’t give him more than one chance in three. There are some polls out there (recent Gallup poll for example) that suggest that this could be the biggest re-alignment since 1894. I think it is likely that the GOP will pick up about sixty seats in the House, but it might go as high as a hundred. |
“I also think the Tea Party candidates that are being covered heavily in the media for Alaska, Nevada and Delaware will all lose.” Delaware and Nevada yes. I’m not so sure about Alaska. In any event, the seat won’t go to a Dem. |
Yeah, but the chances that it will go to the Tea Party candidate are just as slim right now, almost even odds in fact. |
I predict that whoever wins the elections, the American people will lose. |
I share danithew’s twisted glee, and watching it happen in back-to-back elections, first to one party, then the other, doubles my “throw ‘em out” enjoyment. |
I’d be more gleeful about throwing people out if the replacements weren’t just more of the same. Replacing a Democratic House member with a Republican House member isn’t going to help our the country in any meaningful way, just like the opposite change didn’t do much four years ago. |
Danithew – I too get some sort of twisted joy from that and it does not matter who is in power… Jjohnsen – pot in CA now that is one to cheer for! |
Republicans will have a 38 seat majority in the House and a 2 seat majority in the Senate. |
Control of the senate comes down to….. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html Of the last 6 toss-ups I think that Boxer and Murray win because their states are so blue. Il, CO and WV go red. A Reid loss which looks possible despite how terrible of a candidate Angle is makes the Senate 50-50. Total gridlock in congress which in my view as a small business owner ends all the Obama uncertainty and the economy will slowly recover. |
18. Jota G – there we go – specific… 19. bbell – gridlock is not a bad thing |
I didn’t say I was cheering, just that it would win. I don’t see it affecting me much really. I don’t live in California. I am however excited to see how things play out if it does win. I have a Tea Party-ing friend who doesn’t know what to think because he loves to go one about states rights, but he’s also a huge fan of the war on drugs. It would be great to watch him tie himself in knots. |
Gridlock isn’t uncertainty? And we are already experiencing a slow recovery, though I assume a change in the House will mean a recovery was all thanks to Republicans. |
Devyn S: “I would love to see it go 50-50 with someone the moderate Republicans/independent liberals having significant power.” That would be great!! But other than in New Englad (ie Senator Snow), Republicans seem to have thrown out all the moderates. I wonder if there are more than a couple of states where a moderate has even a ghost of a chance at winning a Republic primary. bbell: If Reagan’s chief economis is right, the gridlock you describe will doom you — and the rest of us. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43219.html |
I would like to see both the Senate and House flip parties. In my view the parity that occurred in 1994 was the best thing that has happened to our country politically in the last 50 years. |
I’d love to hear the thinking behind that statement. The last 50 years? |
The political changes in 1994 eventually led to the only budget surpluses we have seen in at least the last 50 years (probably longer). |
Remember Obama’s pastor? He’s not nearly as horrific as Angle’s (Reid’s opponent) pastor. http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/home/50434091-76/church-pastor-angle-mormon.html.csp |
House – Republicans gain 72 seats. Note that if the GOP gains more than 50 seats in the house, senate power will be significantly reduced because of the narrow majority (either way) and the presence of some moderates in either party. The house GOP leaders will be negotiating with Obama more than any senator. If victorious, Senator Reid will still be the most powerful Mormon, especially if he is seen as the only legislative counterweight to the GOP house. |
Sharron Angle’s old pastor tries to throw away Mormon votes for her. |
I missed Tim’s comment above. Sorry about that. As a consolation, if you follow my link you’ll find a link to a fun video of the Killers playing “Home Means Nevada” at a Harry Reid rally. |
It won’t be hard to beat my prediction. I’ll have to sharpen my numbers and come up with state-by-state predictions, but I’ve been predicting that the Republicans will win majorities in both the House and the Senate since Scott Brown won in Massachusetts in January of this year. |
