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“But WA is deep blue so I give a close race to the D” Well, Puget Sound area is deep blue, but not the rest of the state…. We’ve had unbelievably close gubernatorial elections here the last few times. |
I think Harry Reid will keep his seat by under half a percent. |
I’m sticking to my earlier prediction – Republicans will have a 2 seat majority in the Senate (3 if you count Lieberman announcing he’ll caucus with the Republicans). |
I’m going with Nate Silver. The Dems keep the Senate with 51.7 seats. I bet Obama is secretly happy with the GOP takeover of the House. Puts the ball in their court for two years. |
I agree with a random John. This is perfect for the President. I’m surprised you didn’t mention Alaska bbell. It’s the most interesting race by far in my opinion. A Republican nominee endorsed by the Tea Party Princess is probably going to be beaten by a moderate Republican with a write-in campaign. I agree with most of your list though, the Dems will probably hold on with 51 seats. |
Yeah, Alaska is weird this year. I did not put that one down because Murkowski will caucus with the R’s after she probably wins. That is why the R leadership in the senate did not strip her of her seniority prior to the election because there was to much unknown over who would actually win the election. |
Republicans will win the senate 51-49 when Fiorina and Rossi win in Calif and Washington. Democrats can celebrate with a win in West Virginia by the Democrat who is a Democrat in name only. |
What do you think about Utah? |
The only thing worth watching in Utah is the possibility that the lone D congressman could be pulled under by the wave. Its up in the air on that one. |
bbell, Matheson is up by 15 points as of this weekend. It would have to be one heck of a wave to drown him. |
Agreed ARJ. He is polling above 50%. Incumbents above 50% almost never lose. The only thing that gives me any pause at all is the tilt of the district in presidential elections and the size of the coming wave. Most likely he wins. |
We’ll see pretty soon. The Philpot people (well, actually not the Philpot people since nobody wants to give Philpot money directly) have put up a load of signs today. Many illegal. They seem to have a lot of energy, which might make the difference. |
I encouraged everyone on Facebook to make me their write-in candidate for any and every job available. Having spread my name out there so widely, I’m hopeful I will win at least something. |
51.7 it is! What do I win? |
A date with bbell. |
Only two wrong (probably). Not bad. Most of the Republicans you picked to win did so by significantly narrower margins than you predicted (2% instead of 4%), and most of the Democrats you picked to win did so by significantly higher margins, but a win’s a win. |